The 20-10 Santa Clara Broncos blasted for 61 second-half points in a 103-89 win over Portland last week and hope to break the code at 9:30 p.m. tonight at the 18-13 Pilots in the West Coast Conference Tournament Will give PM PST.
Santa Clara is 9-2 against the spread (ATS) in his last 11, thanks to the 19th-best effective field goal percentage in the nation, but Portland is no slouch, going 14-4 ATS in his last 18.
Can the Broncos go on with a second-straight victory over the Pilots, or will Portland prove to be a fearsome underdog and keep him close?
Portland vs Santa Clara Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- Portland +9 (-110)
- Santa Clara -9 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Portland: +325
- Santa Clara: -425
Total:
- 151 (Over -110/Under -110)
Portland vs Santa Clara Prediction and Pick
Portland fought hard with the Broncos for most of the game, before a three-point blast from the second half propelled Santa Clara to victory. 61 points in the half are completely boner. Over three points in a minute? are you kidding with me?
The Broncos have the 10th best three-point shooting percentage in the country, so it's not surprising. But even so, when your season average is 38%, going 14/25 off the arc is unlikely.
Portland is 12-4 ATS as an underdog and I love their chances to continue that trend. They are at the 98th percentile nationally in the offensive rating higher than their previous five, while Santa Clara is in the fourth percentile in the defensive ratings over the same time period. The pilots could very well have won that game. Sometimes the other team just makes a billion three in your face and that's it.
But he hasn't been playing the Broncos this year. They're in the 13th percentile in the three-point effort rate, so they feel more comfortable working the ball inside. Maybe they'll never miss a three again and change their team completely, but I'll bet that won't happen.
It is telling that the line closed as a 10.5-point spread in favor of Santa Clara in the first matchup. Even after a win, the line is below 9? Sportsbooks are telling us something - I'm inclined to trust them.