On Tuesday, President Joe Biden took his most aggressive stance on filibuster, emphasizing his support for a carving out in Senate rules to pass the voting rights law.
"The next few days, when these bills are voted on, will be a turning point in the history of this country," Biden said during a speech in Atlanta. “The point is this: will we choose democracy over autocracy, light over shadow, justice over injustice? I know where I stand."
While Biden's strong statement of support for filibuster reform was a notable sign of the president's -- and his party's -- development on the issue, the difficult legislative reality of Democrats is unlikely to change.
Early in his presidency, Biden was hesitant to push for an exception to the rules surrounding filibuster, a mechanism by which a senator could essentially pass any law unable to get 60 votes in his favor. Is. But he changed his mind in the face of Republican opposition to voting rights legislation, including the Freedom to Vote Act, which Democrats hope to pass this month. With the filibuster intact, the GOP will be able to block that bill like they have blocked other Democratic priorities, from legislation to investigate the January 6 uprising to efforts to strengthen unions.
Democrats require every member of their narrow 50-person majority to pass changes to Senate rules. But Biden's new embrace of filibuster reforms is not expected to impress moderates like censors Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kirsten Cinema (D-AZ), who have been resistant for months. Less than 24 hours before Biden's speech, Munchkin told CNN that he did not approve of the passing of any of the Democrats' current reform proposals along party lines advocating for Biden on Tuesday.
This dynamic has prompted several voting rights groups - including the New Georgia Project Action Fund, the Black Voters Matter Fund, the Asian American Advocacy Fund and the GALEO Impact Fund - to boycott Biden's speech on Tuesday. The groups argue that the president's efforts would be better served in putting direct pressure on moderate lawmakers in Washington rather than describing it as another "photo op" in Atlanta.
"We don't need another speech. We don't need him to come to Georgia and use that as a prop. We need work," Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, told CNN.
The speech, the second in a series of fiery comments Biden has made about the existential threat to American democracy, aims to push more reluctant senators to support the rule changes needed to pass voting rights bills. Is. However, lawmakers like Munchkin and Cinema don't seem receptive to such pressure — and activists insist they still want to see Biden do more, including focusing his energies on Senate votes. Is.
Ongoing resistance from moderate senators underscores the limits of Biden's rhetoric, if such speeches are not combined with real change in the Senate.
Biden is now taking a more aggressive stance
In his first year as president, as it became clear that Republicans were committed to repeatedly blocking voting rights and other priorities, Biden has gradually become more open to the idea of filibuster reform.
In March 2021, Biden said he would support reinstating a talking filibuster, which requires senators to constantly be on the floor and deliver speeches to block a bill. In October, Biden said he supported "fundamentally change[ing]" to make progress on some issues. And in December, he said he was willing to consider a carve out for filibuster to pass the Voting Rights Bill.
As president, Biden's more aggressive position is a significant one. He is the leader of his own party, and his development increases the pressure on moderate Democrats. Biden is also a 36-year veteran of the Senate, who has often praised the value of bipartisanship. It gives moderate Democrats a framework and even political cover to change their minds on the issue.
Moderates, including censors Tim Kaine (D-VA), Mark Warner (D-VA), and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) are among those who have come out with strong support for filibuster reforms. His shift on the matter, combined with that of Biden, is a symbol of how quickly support for filibuster reform has become a mainstream state of the Democrats.
Still, the president himself cannot make changes to the filibuster or force Congress to do so. Instead, he may take advantage of his role to gain attention and use his influence personally to lash out at liberal senators. And that's what Biden hopes to do with his speech.
Whether these efforts will end the job is uncertain. In 2013, President Barack Obama reportedly made persuasive calls to senators who were deciding whether to blow up filibusters to pass more circuit and district court candidates. As Manu Raju wrote for Politico at the time, Obama's calls were part of the final push for rule change:
Of course, Democrats had a sizable majority at the time, and there were still holdouts—including Munchkins—who weren't facing any pressure. Biden now faces a very narrow Senate majority, and his influence can only go with lawmakers who have repeatedly said they are not open to changes to these rules.
Activists have insisted this week, however, that they think Biden needs to use his platform to push home on moderate holdouts and deliver results.
"If he's saying that the next seven days are going to be historic and important, then he's going to have to give a speech after giving a full bow, the types of meetings, the munchkin to figure out what's really going to happen, and so on. To be direct and to be grounded - as he has been on infrastructure and some other issues," Albright told CNN.
President's rhetoric signals a significant change, but probably won't be enough
The president's rhetoric may convince some moderates who are simply non-committal about revising filibuster, like Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). But while Biden's speech helps set the tone on the issue, it is not expected to persuade moderates who are most skeptical about filibuster reform.
Manchin and Cinema have repeatedly stressed the need to preserve filibusters in recent weeks as well. Because of their longstanding opposition, a carving for the filibuster for voting rights is likely off the table.
Munchkin has also said he is interested in a "bilateral" rule change. Such a change is unlikely, as Republicans are unlikely to support any reform, including minor reforms. Meanwhile, Cinema has reiterated that it wants to retain the 60-vote limit for votes on the bills.
Some Democrats are hopeful that Munchkin and Cinema can be convinced to accept other, less-detailed filibuster reforms that could apply to voting rights legislation and other bills. These might include reinstating the talking filibuster and forcing members of the minority to cast 41 votes to block the bills, rather than the majority voting 60 to push them. At the moment, no senator has fully endorsed any of the options, although they have indicated openness to considering them.
Such reforms, while they would make it more difficult to block bills, would provide no guarantee that the voting rights law would actually pass. That would leave Biden right where he is now: unable to pursue most laws, because the Democratic Senate majority is so narrow. Unless he finds a way to get through the moderates holding onto the filibuster, Democrats will continue to struggle to get the bills passed, and Biden will see his agenda facing the same impasse that it is now.