Will the Scarlet Knights end up going to the big dance? We’ll find out in a few hours.
Rutgers is the most polarizing team in regards to NCAA Tournament bubble speculation. I covered estimates here and here earlier in the week.
Let's survey the Bracketology landscape as Selection Sunday is just hours away, where Rutgers is currently estimated as a whole and by specific sites.
With regards to Rutgers' profile, their 6-6 record versus Quad 1 opponents has the most wins of any Bubble team in that category. They are also currently 8-6 against teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Their road/neutral game record of 4-9 has the fewest wins of any bubble team. A significant difference though is only Rutgers and Xavier have two Quad 1 road victories. The Musketeers beat No. 50 Oklahoma State and No. 55 Creighton on the road, while Rutgers beat No. 25 Wisconsin and No. 38 Indiana.
Their net ranking as of Sunday is number 77, the worst of all bubble teams. Three quad 3 / quad 4 loss is a major reason it's so low. If Rutgers is eventually selected for the NCAA Tournament, they will make history as the worst net ranking ever, earning a bid. St. John's currently holds that distinction after being ranked number 73 in 2019 in Dance's Way.
The Bracket Matrix is your best resource in keeping track of all the projections as we get closer to Selection Sunday. They have every approximate bracket here and they have a fully compiled ranking system that measures the accuracy of these bracketology sites for the past five years. Ranking includes choosing the field correctly but also seeding.
As of Sunday morning at midnight March 13, Rutgers has been estimated by 90 of the 143 bracketology sites listed in the NCAA Tournament. That's a 62.9% inclusion rate in a field of 68 for all estimates, down from 81% as of Friday morning. Ru's average seed is 11.59, which is just 0.01 bad from two days ago. Their current estimate is anywhere as high as 10 seeds and as little as are being discarded.
Got it all? Well, let's take a look at some notable picks.
1 ranked site in the last five years named Crazy Sports Dude. He has been involved with Rutgers throughout the week and was listed as the final team on Saturday, March 12. However, they listed Virginia Tech as the final team and they won the ACC's automatic bid on Saturday night. I'll update once the site posts the final update before the selection shows, but it may have Rutgers on the wrong side of the bubble.
The No. 2 ranked site in the last five years is Delphi Bracketology. He had Rutgers IN as the No. 11 seed playing No. 6 seed LSU in San Diego all week. However, by Saturday, March 12, they had dropped Rutgers so low that they could not even make the final four teams list. He pointed this out on Twitter on Friday when he had Rutgers at the top of the cut line. This was our conversation:
He tweeted this after midnight on Sunday:
Our Vote tomorrow for the last 3 spots comes down to these teams
— Delphi Bracketology (@DelphiBrackets) March 13, 2022
Xavier
Michigan
Notre Dame
SMU
North Texas
Oklahoma
Rutgers
Will put vote to our group in mid morning
The No. 3 ranked site in the last five years is HeatCheck CBB by Lucas Harkins. He had Rutgers as the first team out of the NCAA Tournament for most of the week. In its latest edition on Saturday, March 12, Rutgers joined OUT, their fourth team behind Xavier, Dayton and VCU. Their final four include Virginia Tech, SMU, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
The No. 4 ranked site is Weber Sports Bracketology which last updated its projections on March 9, and Rutgers is the last team to be second as the No. 12 seed playing SMU on Wednesday. I'll revise his projection here, once an update is posted before the selection shows.
5 ranked site Boiling the Bracket has Rutgers firmly in the field this week. With the last update on March 11th, RU are listed as the third to last team in a field of 68. The only team in their final four that's made a move is Virginia Tech, so you'd think they're supposed to dance on Sunday night.
Let's walk around a bit.
Dave Omen runs Bracketville which is a very extensive site and has been at No. 9 for the last five years. He currently has the No. 7 seed TCU in the first round as the Rutgers IN No. 10 seed comfortably in the tournament scheduled to play. His latest was updated on March 12 and did not carry his trajectory, which he tweeted on Saturday after Ru was on course to get a bye in his group of last four teams. This tweet is extremely relevant to Rutgers as well and that is why their NCAA tournament predictions are everywhere.
Brad Wachtel was a guest on our podcast two weeks ago and runs Facts and Breaks. He is ranked 17th in the last five years. They still have Rutgers as the third to last team to play Notre Dame in Dayton. He also tweeted this Sunday morning:
Another good one is The Bracketeer, run by Rocco Miller. He, like Omen, clearly joins Rutgers as No. 10 seed playing No. 7 seed Colorado State in an update on March 10.
The Big Underdog site, run by Jason Carmelo, has been ranked 33rd over the years. They have Rutgers safely in the field as of March 12 as the third 11 seed. He cites evaluating the Quad 1 win on computer metrics, but wonders what priority the committee will actually make to decide.
In regards to some high-profile sites, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has been ranked 55th over the past five years. Even though he doesn't rank high, I respect Lunardi and think he is inferior because of seeding, rather than the estimated teams in the field. They updated their projected area as of 9 pm on Saturday, March 12. They have Rutgers safely IN as 11 seeds facing No. 6 Alabama.
CBS's Jerry Palm is ranked 100th over the past five years and, as of Saturday, March 12, he has Rutgers with Michigan as the last team on the field.
In 101st place is Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report, who has Rutgers safely IN as 11 seeds playing against Colorado State. He updated at 1:50 p.m. Sunday.
T3 Bracketology ranks 17th out of 67 relatively new sites and as of 1:30 a.m. on Sunday Rutgers has been listed in the area:
Finally, SB Nation's site blogging The Bracket has been ranked 86th over the past five years. Chris Doberton runs the site and does a great job. He currently has Rutgers as the fourth team after joining him previously.
I'll be posting bracketology updates leading up to Sunday night's NCAA Tournament selection show. Don't forget to have your tissues and Tums ready.
As we draw closer to Sunday night, I'll leave you with some insight into the state of Rutgers' bubble.
Bubble teams such as Florida, Xavier, Wake Forest, Oregon and Notre Dame all lost their preliminary conference tournament games. Yes, Rutgers did the same, but they were the only team to face a top 15 net opponent in their opening game in their respective conference tournaments. Other bubble teams such as Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Miami and Creighton have helped their cause while Virginia Tech has received auto-bids from the ACC.
In terms of routing interest on Sunday, Rutgers fans want Davidson to beat Richmond in the Atlantic 10 title game (ESPN 1PM ET) or that means a team doing the big dance will be cut. Texas A&M is firmly on the bubble and they could potentially knock out another team as well if they can beat Tennessee in the SEC Championship Game (CBS 1PM ET).
I put my side here for Rutgers to make it to the NCAA Tournament.
The bottom line is that there is a major focus by some bracketologists to prioritize net ranking as a major factor in the criteria for selecting a field of 68 teams. The real purpose of the net as defined by the NCAA is to be able to classify opponents into quadrants, not to compare teams to each other based on their net rankings. If other factors like eye test and record versus quad game do not factor into the equation, there would be no need for a selection committee. The NCAA will simply print out a list of teams and assign its seed accordingly. For some reason this doesn't happen.
All the knowledgeable people I've talked to within college basketball over the past few weeks have considered Rutgers firmly on the field. They have played and look like a team that belongs to the NCAA tournament. Let's hope the committee prioritizes winning big over predictive metrics, which, when you say it out loud, makes you wonder why it won't?
The hard part is that it's estimated for Rutgers to field as firmly as 10 or 11 seeds in the final team, not even the last team in the Final Four. It's wild. Bubbles Life is not for the faint of heart.
Do whatever you have to do to make up for the time of day and meet you at 6:00 PM. ET. The selection show by CBS will feature Rutgers and be filmed live one camera as Scarlet Knights wait to learn their post-season fate. Could this group dance in a back-to-back NCAA tournament for the first time since 1975-1976? We will find out soon.