A number of top seeds in the men’s NCAA tournament could be on upset alert as these tricky underdogs await.
March Madness is officially here, with all 68 teams officially locked in the 2022 men's NCAA Tournament bracket and games set to end with the first four on Tuesday. Inevitably, a team you've never seen this season will stun the sports world and introduce themselves to the Big Dance with one or two memorable upsets. However, identifying that team in advance can be the hard part. Which Cinderella teams can blow up your bracket? We've been tracking the top contenders throughout the season and have ranked the 10 most likely clubs to do so.
1. Colorado State (No. 6 seed, South Zone)
After experiencing heartbreak a year ago on Selection Sunday, Colorado State has no doubt put together an incredibly impressive resume and spent time in the top 25 in 2021-22. At Rams David Roddy is one of the best players in the country. Incredibly unique forward with elite shooting touch despite the frame looking like a defensive lineman. But it's not just Roddy that makes this team special—point guard Isaiah Stevens is one of the best floor generals in the country and has 17 points and 11 assists in an early-season win over Creighton without a turnover.
The Rams rank in the top 20 nationally in offensive efficiency per kenpom, but Mountain West victories over the likes of San Diego State and Boise State have proven they are capable of winning a grinding style of play. To reach Sweet 16 (or further), CSU will have to deal with some elite-level length and athleticism, especially at the front. If this Rams team has any weakness, it's center position, and it will likely have to deal with a potential date with Michigan's Hunter Dickinson in the first round and Tennessee's athletic roster in the second. But a team with two elite players like Roddy and Stevens would be tough, especially with this group as well-trained.
2. Loyola Chicago (No. 10 seed, South Zone)
The Ramblers may have a new coach, but they are back and able to make another run at the Big Dance. Drew Valentine is the youngest head coach in Division I, but was part of both Loyola's recent runs and has a stamp on the program in his first year under the leadership of the Ramblers. Loyola plays faster than in years past and doesn't rely on post players like Cameron Krutwig, but it is one of the nation's most prolific three-point shooting teams and ranks in the top 25 nationally in defensive proficiency at Kenpom. does.
Six of the seven key rotation players from last year's Ramblers team, who went into the Sweet 16, are still with the group. And this year, Loyola played a tough game with Auburn and Michigan State, beating San Francisco, Vanderbilt, DePaul, and Arizona State. It won't be intimidated by the moment or intimidated by the size that first-round rival Ohio State presents (especially with the recent struggles of the Buckeyes), and I guarantee No. 2 seed Villanova could potentially attract a team. didn't want to. Battle-tested in the second round.
3. San Diego State (No. 8 seed, Midwest region)
It's hard to believe that any high seed would want to see the Aztecs in this tournament play the way they defend. SDSU ranks second in defensive efficiency nationally, per Kenpom, behind only Texas Tech in that figure. The Aztecs are tall, athletic, and very well trained on that end of the floor, and they do a tremendous job of imposing their style of play on opposing teams.
There has always been a concern with SDSU as to whether Brian Dutcher's team will be able to score consistently enough to win against the top competition. But the Aztecs have been better on that end of the floor lately, and the presence of elite isolation scorer Matt Bradley gives this group a man who can make shots for himself when the offense is low. Bradley was quiet at the Mountain West tournament last week, but he has scored 24 or more points in a game seven times since February 1.
The Aztec defense should be a problem for first-round rival Creighton, who is playing without new point guard Ryan Nembard due to a season-ending wrist injury. And if the Aztecs can enforce their playing style on the No. 1 seed Kansas? Be careful
4. UAB (No. 12 Seed, South Zone)
Former Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy has produced "Transfer You" at his alma mater to great success. The Blazers won 27 games in 2021–22, culminating in the C-USA Tournament title, and did so while starting five transfers – all in their fourth, fifth or sixth year of college basketball. The headliner of that group is point guard Jordan "Jelly" Walker, who, after stopping at Seton Hall and Tulane, found a home and thrived in Kennedy's guard-friendly system. Walker averages over 20 points per game and has made 115 threes this season at a 40.6% clip, so he's a real weapon that can win you a game or two. Three other Blazers aggressively averaged double-figures, including versatile Ole Miss transfer KJ Buffon. The experience level and athleticism of this group means that it will be physically no more than any high-key team, which is quite a luxury for a mid-major team.
Six of UAB's seven losses this season have been six points or less. This included a major team in San Francisco and heart-wrenching defeats to high-profile teams such as South Carolina and West Virginia. Also, the Blazers entered the Big Dance by winning seven games in a row and playing their best basketball of the season at just the right time. That's bad news for first-round rivals Houston, a team that's just 1-4 against top-50 Kenpom teams this season and without star guard Marcus Sasser shouldn't intimidate the Blazers from a talent standpoint.
5. San Francisco (No. 10 seed, Eastern Region)
The Dons became the first WCC team not named Gonzaga, BYU or St. Mary's to earn a major bid in two decades, a notable achievement for Todd Golden's program. He has done it with tremendous guard play, savvy work in the transfer portal and an analytics-heavy approach that has allowed him to make the event into the top-25 in Kenpom and the Nets.
Point guard play is essential in March, and San Francisco has one of the best in the country at Jamari Bouya, a fifth-year senior who is very good at making ball screens and has impressive range beyond the arc. He's the straw that stirs the drink for Don, and makes a hard-to-stop pairing when paired with dynamic two-way guard Khaleel Shabaz. But what's really unlocked the Dons' improvement in 2021-22 is the addition of Yahenne Masalski, as the transfer big man has become one of the best pick-and-roll finishers in the country in addition to doing strong defensive work . down low.
The Dons have faced Gonzaga three times and have been within 10 in the second half in all three games, so they certainly won't be overwhelmed by Kentucky's size and athleticism in a potential round of 32. Of course, this requires fellow potential Cinderella to be obtained by the undead kingdom.