Seoul: South Korea's presidential election this Wednesday could have an impact on its relations with the US, North Korea and China. But the vote is likely to hinge on domestic issues.
In previous elections, politicians campaigned largely on ideological or geographical grounds. This time, the race is playing with generations.
People in their 20s and 30s make up about a third of the vote – and the candidate really wants them to win.
A central issue is how these young voters feel about the generation coming to power. Many of those in office are referred to as the "86 generation" because they were college students in the 1980s and born in the 60s.
Many of the 86 people were pro-democracy activists who overthrew the military dictatorship that ruled the country from 1961 to 1988. The generation now controls the heights of South Korean business and politics, including the outgoing administration and regime of President Moon Jae-in. Democratic Party of Korea.
"If young voters 60 and older shake hands with people aged 60 and above, the opposition will win the election," predicts Seoul-based political consultant Park Sung-min. But "if they are once again with those in their 40s and 50s," as they did in the last presidential election five years ago, he continued, "the 86th generation of the Democratic Party will extend their rule. "
Moon cannot seek re-election because South Korea's constitution limits the presidency to a five-year term. Lee Jae-myung is running with the liberal Democratic Party, to succeed him, facing off against Yoon Suk Yeol of the conservative People Power Party – both born in the 1960s – as well as smaller parties. about a dozen other candidates. Early voting began on Friday
86 people overthrew a dictatorship
Activists of the 86th Generation's fight for democracy culminated in nationwide protests known as the "June Struggle" in 1987, which led to the first democratic elections in decades of military rule. The movement has inspired pro-democracy activists around the world, particularly in Asia, including Myanmar and Hong Kong.
But a series of scandals during the Moon administration has led many young South Koreans to accuse 86 of hypocrisy, and to become the kind of political establishment they once fought.
Some 86 people, including Seoul-based civic activist Lee Jinson, argue that pro-democracy activists had difficulty living up to their ideals even before entering politics.
For Lee and many others, that gateway was the 2000 parliamentary election. She says many activists wanted to remain independent of the main political parties. So they made a pact among themselves.
“We promised — with romantic idealism, in retrospect — to join whatever party would nominate us,” she recalls. "And once we're elected, leave the party and call a third party."
Once the workers started receiving funding and organizational support from the main parties, the plan quickly failed.
"People who used to be friends started attacking each other from opposite sides," she says, "in just two or three months.
There are allegations of scandals and betrayal
This betrayal appears to foreshadow many more recent ones under the Moon administration.
For example, former Justice Minister Cho Cook advocated for equal opportunity, but resigned in 2019 after his wife was accused of fraud in getting their daughter to attend an elite school.
Lee argues that activists were more focused on the goal of ending the dictatorship and less on how they went about it. She points out that while fighting a dictatorship, activists saw equality and diversity of ideas within their movement as luxuries and weaknesses.
“We started our activism outside the confines of the law, although we later became a public movement,” she says. "But even after that, we never adequately educated ourselves about liberalism or republicanism."
The Moon administration promised to tackle one of the country's hottest political issues: skyrocketing housing prices. But his officials were accused of betting in real estate.
Lee Jeong-mi is now a minor, 86 years old and former labor activist with the left-wing Center Justice Party. She says that the 86 residents are still fighting the old establishment in their mind, when in fact they themselves have become new.
"They enjoy all the privileges in areas like their children's education, or real estate," she observes. "But they still believe that they are serving a mission to fight evil and bring justice. So they feel like: 'Why follow us, when other people are even worse?'
Another scandal involved Park Won-soon, a former mayor of Seoul, who killed himself in 2020 after his secretary was accused of sexual assault.
Lee Jeong-mi says this was another sign that 86 people never really understood gender equality.
"Worker groups were mostly led by men," she explains. "They trivialized sexual violence within their organizations on the pretext of protecting these groups in the fight against military dictatorships."
South Koreans refer to such hypocrisy as "nairo nambul", which means that when the 86th generation does it, it is romance, when someone else does it, it is adultery.
Lee Dongsu, who is 33 and heads a youth policy think tank in Seoul called Polikru, acknowledges the contribution of the 86 generation to South Korea's democracy. But he says the struggle for democracy weighs too little with voters too young to be remembered, and sees 86 as out of touch with the present.
"Current establishment politics hasn't been updated since the 80s or 90s. It still suffers more from ideology than the everyday lives of citizens," he laments. "I think that's the main reason why my generation and I have turned against the Democratic Party and politics in general."
Lee expressed his generation's dismay at the lack of compelling political choices in the frankly titled book, "I Don't Like the Liberals, and I Don't Like the Conservatives".
Lee says smaller South Korean parties lack the organization and vision to attract young voters.
Three generations have very different experiences and views
Of course, this isn't the only country where young voters face declining social mobility, feel alienated from traditional political parties or express disgust at what they see as the hypocrisy of Baby Boomers.
But political adviser Park Sung-min says South Korea's generational divide is unique.
The parents of 86, he noted, survived brutal colonialism by Japan and the subsequent Korean War. They also experienced rapid industrial and urban development and an increasing standard of living. 86 people themselves conquered a military dictatorship. But Millennials have only experienced life under a prosperous democracy.
"Unlike previous generations, this generation self-identifies as consumers and values individuals over countries, people or organizations such as corporations," Park says.
In the last presidential election, young swing voters aligned with the 86 to oust the older ruling conservatives.
"But once it became clear that the 86 generation itself had become mainstream," Park explains, "the younger generation realized that they, too, would be forced to."