Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa EPL Betting

When Brighton & Hove Albion take on Aston Villa on Saturday, it will not be the most consequential game in the Premier League.

In fact, it may be the least resultant match when it comes to the league's top-four race and the battle for relegation, but that doesn't mean it's an intensely contested match with both teams producing results. There will be no fight.

After all, it's the English top flight and each squad has been kicked out of their other competitions so that's the only thing left to focus on and play for the rest of the season.

This is where I see the betting value in this matchup.

Brighton struggle to bring intensity

Sitting ninth on the table with safety from relegation essentially safe and a European spot almost impossible to reach, Brighton are in a stable, secure position in the league.

There's not much to lose at this point in the season, but not much to gain, and one has to wonder if the past few games have had an impact on Seagull's game. Against Burnley, Brighton threw in a weak performance that produced only 0.45 expected goals and resulted in a 3–0 defeat.

In their defeat to Manchester United four days earlier, Brighton were handled with relative ease and struggled to create many reasons for concern towards United, who won 2–0. It certainly isn't a pressing problem for Brighton, but manager Graham Potter will be looking for improvement from his team in the coming games.

Siegel will have a chance to do so against a Villa team that lost them 2-0 earlier in the year, and it's not a particularly impressive side away from home.

A third consecutive defeat would be incredibly disappointing for Brighton, and while it will not have a major impact on the club's outlook for the rest of the year, it will put it into its worst form of the season by a solid margin.

Aston Villa finds itself in a similar situation

When Steven Gerrard took over as manager, the goal was to make sure the villains didn't have to deal with a relegation battle. They delivered on that in quick fashion, and Villa are now seven points clear of the bottom three, between which there are four teams and Burnley are in 18th place.

Brighton are likely to face a similar drop in intensity of behavior they have dealt with, which is no surprise given the circumstances of their position. However, Villa have achieved just 1.56 xG in their last two matches and have not scored a goal. Known?

Like Brighton, Villa will be looking to break their fortunes with a positive result, and like their foe, Ezri Konsa will see a significant return from suspension. Potter will be able to take on the role of Captain Lewis Dunk, and it will only help edge both sides in the defensive third, although goals are a more pressing issue at the moment.

Villa have not lost three games in a row since Gerrard's arrival, and another defeat could theoretically put it in a mildly dangerous position once again.

Betting Analysis and Picks

Although each side is going through a down period, it would probably be fair to view Villa's performance as a touch, given that the two teams in the bottom four of the table faced two defeats.

Brighton were an unfortunate touch in their loss to Burnley, but the performance from start to finish was really poor and better results should be expected from this squad.

As the Seagulls hold a +0.17 xG odds per game at home and Villa currently maintain a -0.4 xGDiff number, the edge certainly begins in the hosts' favour. Whether it brings a better level or not is a big question, but it is certain that these teams have not been able to build anything aggressive in the last two matches.

They've managed just 0.8 xG/game in their last four combined, so despite the bottom line's total juice, it appears to be worth more than combining these squads for three or more goals.

Without too many stakes and each team struggling to find form, it's hard to disrupt this matchup, but based on advanced metrics I believe Brighton and staying under 2.5 goals total should be worthwhile plays could.