Both of these players are in need of a win in this match, but it's the Argentine that is the better clay-court player.
The opening rounds of the 2022 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters are full of fascinating match-ups, but we are particularly interested in the clash between world number 24 Karen Khachanov and world number 16 Diego Schwartzman. None of them is playing so well in this match, but that is the reason why bookies should look opportunistic in this match.
While Schwartzman is just 13-7 in 2022 and 2-3 in his last five games, the 29-year-old is 8-3 when playing on clay in the 2022 season. The Argentine scored deep runs in Córdoba, Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro, and should have been prepared to experience that in this big tournament. Meanwhile, Khachanov hasn't played a clay-court match since last year's French Open, where he won only one match. A nine-month hiatus on the dirt could have left Khachanov feeling somewhat uncomfortable starting the match.
The style of play in this match-up also tends to favor Schwartzman, which is part of the reason Argentina has played three out of five times—though one of those wins was in an exhibition. While Khachanov is an impressive talent, with a good combination of size, maneuverability and power, Schwartzman is a next-level defensive player, able to track down tough shots and play them with regularity. There is no player on tour who works harder than the 29-year-old, and that is going to really disappoint Khachanov here. The Russian is capable of hitting some impressive shots from both sides, but can get in his head when things aren't going right. And if Schwartzman is extending rallies and forcing him to make mistakes, it could quickly go downhill for the 25-year-old.
Schwartzman is also a player who really feeds on the energy of the crowd, and it is likely that Monaco fans will follow him in this. No matter how hard he plays, Schwartzman usually wins over fans in attendance. And given that he is facing a much bigger opponent in this, this match will have a David-and-Goliath feel. Schwartzman, who hasn't played his best tennis until 2022, can quickly start feeling good about his game if these fans are urging him.
Overall, it's very easy to rely on a competitor like Schwartzman to get back on track in a match like this, and the odds aren't dire to get him as the favorite. We'd love to see Schwartzman pull up as the -175 favorite on Moneyline eventually, but we also think he can cover a 1.5-game spread if you take the chance to do so. However, at -150 for the spread of the game, you're just paying a little extra juice and not worrying about the game at all.