DETROIT — The Detroit Tigers went strong in 2021, stocked with players this winter and will start the new season with higher expectations than any time in at least five years.
Fans are hopeful and excited - the rebuilding process required them to keep two emotions in storage.
“Nobody wants to talk about trying hard; they want to talk about winning,” said Tigers manager AJ Hinch.
He was talking about the Tigers clubhouse, but he could also be talking about the fans in the seats of Comerica Park.
Do the rest of the nation's baseball forecasters share the same good vibes and high expectations?
not usually. At least some of the more aggressive expectations than you'll hear in Detroit these days.
But reviewing pre-season predictions doesn't deliver all bad news. Most of the predictions think that the Tigers have the potential to be an astonishing team in 2022. They are still not sure that this will happen.
Let's take a look at the predictions:
At The Ringer, none of the panels selected the Tigers for the playoffs, but Spencer Torkelson received the preseason vote for rookie of the year, and Bobby Wagner added the Tigers to his surprise team.
"I don't know if Aqeel Baddu will reschedule his 2021 season, or how Torkelson will perform as a rookie, whether and when Riley Greene will be called up, or even Javier Baez before a major contract. In How the Years Will Hit, Wagner wrote. "But if half of them perform as they are capable, this team will beat on mediocre pitching all year long and will be wonderfully enjoyable to watch in the process."
Ringer placed the Tigers at number 18 out of 30 teams in their league-wide power rankings.
About those power rankings.
The Tigers are also at number 18 on The Athletics chart.
"If you lean in properly, you can see a world in which they could be a real pain for the White Sox in 2022," the publication writes.
So let's look at ESPN's power rankings: The Tigers are at number 18 again. This is getting weird. Did they all coordinate it?
Here's a note of caution associated with ESPN's prediction: "Typically when a team is building around a youth rotation, we say that the team will only move as far as the rotation will take it. However, The thing with the Tigers is that even if the rotation turns into an elite unit, the offense will have to outperform estimates for Detroit to climb above .500.
Action Network takes the odds from several sports books and puts together a consensus strength ranking. well, don't you know? The Tigers are number 18. Is Vegas copying websites or vice versa?
In the end, Sports Illustrated bucked the trend and placed the Tigers...19th
Let's go over some win-loss totals.
The Tigers are 74–88 in the Athletic at Keith Law and last in the American League Central.
The Tigers are also going 74-88 at ESPN.
Considering that the Tigers scored 77-85 last year and made some serious investments this winter, it will be a disappointing season.
USA Today's panel is more optimistic, suggesting a slight correction in 80-82. This will keep the Tigers in the confines of the playoff race for at least the summer. But will it disappoint many? Yes.
Finally, let's move on to the algorithm. If you're a frequent reader of this space you already know that the Computers hate the Tigers collectively and its players individually.
So pessimistic predictions are no surprise.
The Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA standings put the Tigers at 70–92, which actually represents an improvement over a few games from earlier in the spring, thanks to some late additions to the roster such as Spencer Torkelson and Austin Meadows.
FiveThirtyEight splits the difference and places the Tigers at 73-89.
All three projection systems will be updated as the season progresses, so if the Tigers get off to a really good or a really bad start, you'll see a change in those numbers.
All these numbers should not dampen your Opening Day optimism. What is Opening Day if not optimism? And maybe all these unbelievers will put a chip on someone's shoulders?
Let's end with some good news: The Athletic's panel voted the Tigers as the lowest-rated team going into the season. Given all the above sub-.500 predictions, it's hard to argue.