A senior administration official and State Department spokesman told CNN that the Biden administration is moving closer to a deal to save the Iran nuclear deal, but there are still many unresolved issues that could sabotage the efforts.
Asked about progress in talks, the spokesman said this week: "While significant progress has been made and we are close to a possible deal, many very difficult issues remain unresolved."
Another administration official warned that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." Iranian experts point out that the points stuck at the negotiating table have diminished, but there is always a chance that new issues will emerge at the last minute.
CNN previously reported that the Biden administration hoped to reach a new deal by the end of February, so there is pressure to reach a breakthrough in the coming days.
US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malle lives in Vienna, Austria, where Iran and the United States are engaged in the final round of indirect talks – mediated by China, Russia and European parties to the deal – on a return to the 2015 deal. Known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which places verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear program designed to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Iran has swiftly broken its commitments under the agreement, and many believe it will be able to quickly develop nuclear weapons and pose a serious threat to security and stability in the Middle East if There was no success soon.
Some administration officials say the war in Ukraine - which is affecting global energy prices a major concern for the Biden administration domestically - has fueled a sense of urgency for efforts to secure a deal. But other officials of the administration have warned against linking the two. crisis
Results could be important for Biden
Still, the final fate of the deal — one of President Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievements, which President Donald Trump walked away with in 2018 — remains beyond the end, as one of the Biden administration's most consequential foreign policy legacies. may end. Russian war game in Ukraine.
A new agreement could prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power – or, as critics argue, give Iran new power at a perilous moment in global affairs. The Biden administration believes that failure to salvage a deal would risk Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, even in the face of severe sanctions.
On Capitol Hill, Democratic lawmakers who backed the original Iran nuclear deal say it's clear there are still issues that need to be resolved. They say they are still hopeful that negotiators can get there - but are not sure that will happen.
"It seems like it's been a little bit of a roller coaster over the past 10 days. My impression is there are still sticking points," said Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat. "Given the briefings we've received on the status of Iran's nuclear program, it would be madness for the United States not to fall back on a deal — if a deal is to be struck."
"I think there are still obstacles. And so I don't think it's immediate, but I think progress has been made. I have expressed great concern," Maryland Democrat Sen. Ben Cardin said.
"You can't put it back together again like it was in 2015," he said. "So it's hard to figure out how do you modernize the deal to where it was before."
Delaware Democrat Sen. Chris Koons said he is not sure how some of the biggest points of contention - the release of Iran's hostages, the waiver of US sanctions - can be resolved.
"I'm surprised it's gone this far," Koons said. "But look, if they decide that their survival depends on relief from sanctions, then we must work very hard to strike a hard deal."
Impact of energy price rise
Some experts believe a rise in energy prices in the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine could stifle talks.
According to Henry Rome, who covers Middle East politics as deputy head of research at the Eurasia Group, about one million barrels of Iranian oil are removed from the global market every day. He added that if a deal is agreed upon, Iran would be able to increase its production over the course of a few months to bring most of those barrels back online, in addition to releasing substantial amounts of oil quickly. which is currently in storage.
"I think the overall Ukraine crisis puts a lot of pressure on Western governments to make a deal as quickly as possible, although it is probably encouraging Iran to ask for more," Rome said. "If a deal goes through, it would provide some significant relief to the extremely volatile energy market."
Earlier this week the US and its allies agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from their reserves.
Asked about any links between the Vienna talks and Ukraine, a State Department spokesman said: "Russia's destabilizing actions have made the world a more dangerous place. We are making it worse by getting Iran a nuclear weapon." cannot and will not allow to be done." crisis.
Russia's representative in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, suggested on Thursday that the talks were close to a conclusion.
"A very fruitful meeting with Dr. Ali Bagheri Kani, Chief Iranian Negotiator this evening. We discussed what more needs to be done to finalize #ViennaTalks on #JCPOA," he tweeted. On Wednesday, he said the talks were "almost over."
Several Iranian experts are closely monitoring IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi's planned visit to Tehran for a meeting with senior Iranian officials on Saturday. He believes that one of the few current sticking points with Iran is to resolve outstanding issues related to IAEA oversight in the country.
Concerns are rising, especially in Congress, as the Biden administration agrees to a deal that gives the Iranians too much and doesn't create tighter controls on Iran's nuclear program.
Gabriel Noronha, a former State Department official who worked on Iran during the Trump administration, said he is hearing from current government officials who are expressing concerns about the possibility of the US lifting sanctions on some Iranian individuals.
“My former career @stateDept, NSC, and EU allies are so concerned with the concessions being offered by @RobMalley in Vienna that they have allowed me to publish some details of the upcoming deal, in the hope that Congress will prevent surrender. will act for," he wrote on Twitter Wednesday, citing concerns that the Biden administration is planning to rescind an executive order signed by Trump that approved Iranians in the office of supreme leader.
A State Department spokesperson said the administration would not publicly negotiate or respond to specific claims about sanctions they could lift as part of a mutual withdrawal to full implementation of the JCPOA.