If Russia attacks, the U.S. believes it would be quick and brutal, sources said.
While Russia's defense ministry said on Tuesday that some forces would withdraw from Ukraine's borders after completing military exercises, the US has not seen that happen so far, President Joe Biden said in an address to the nation.
But what is worrying US officials is that Russian forces are moving closer to the line, including medical supplies, and are being put into firing positions, sources told ABC News.
The US believes Russia now has all the necessary pieces, including 150,000 troops in the region, to launch a swift and brutal invasion of Ukraine, the sources said - here is why Biden administration officials are now saying publicly that Russia can move "at any time."
Notably, ABC News has learned that Russian leader Vladimir Putin told his military forces to be ready to move by Wednesday, February 16, but it is still unclear whether he intended to attack his neighbor. decided or not.
The Russian government has denied any plans to invade Ukraine and has repeatedly criticized the U.S. accused of "hysteria", with these increasingly urgent warnings.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday: "After Russian troops finish drills and return to barracks, the West 'safe' Russian 'de-escalation' - a predictable scenario and a 'diplomatic victory' by cheap domestic political points will announce." According to the country's foreign ministry.
Sources said the US believed an offensive would begin with electronic warfare and aerial bombardment against critical infrastructure, followed by special operations forces entering Kiev to overthrow the Ukrainian government and entering from Belarus. Will resume troops - with plans to complete his campaign in 24 hrs. up to 72 hours.
During his remarks on Tuesday, Biden confirmed that Russian troops "remain in a very dangerous position" - warning that an invasion remains "uniquely possible" and would inflict an "enormous" human toll.
But Biden said the US would welcome Moscow to withdraw its forces and engage in diplomatic talks on US and NATO proposals, arms control and transparency on military exercises.
While Lavrov said Moscow's response to those proposals would be broadcast in the coming days, Putin said Russia's key demands were being ignored - that Ukraine be barred from joining NATO and the Western military alliance with the Eastern Withdraw its forces from European member states.
US And NATO has said they are non-starters - issues that can be decided only by coalitions or individual countries and not under Russian pressure.
"It's about more than just Russia and Ukraine. It's about standing up for what we believe in, for the future we want for our world, for freedom - for freedom, The right of countless countries to choose their own fate, and Biden said in the White House, the right for people to decide their own future, or the principle that no country can forcefully change its neighbor's borders.
Biden and Putin spoke on Saturday - their first in a month - while their top diplomat Lavrov and Foreign Minister Antony Blinken have spoken twice in recent days. While the road to talks remains open, both sides have indicated there are concerns that Russia could resort to war even during talks.
Russia already occupied Ukrainian territory after its annexation of Crimea in 2014, and since then, it has launched a war against Ukrainian troops by arming and financing separatists in Ukraine's eastern provinces, known as Donbass. known from. The Russian parliament on Tuesday passed a resolution calling on Putin to recognize them as independent republics - something Putin indicated he would not do yet.
But sources said that if Russia invades Ukraine, it will most likely not be against a small piece of territory in the Donbass, but against a bloody, brutal and swift attempt to topple President Volodymyr Zelensky's administration and establish a puppet government. There will be a campaign.
Amid heightened US fears, the U.S. It is also concerned that Zelensky's government has not reacted quickly enough and is not better prepared for a possible Russian offensive, the sources said, including by positioning its forces in eastern Ukraine.
Sources said US officials have been urging better preparedness for more than two months, but both President Zelensky and his inner circle have been intent on deterring panic and remaining persistent in the belief not to invade Moscow.
While some US officials suspect Putin is bluffing given the cost of construction, financial and political, many analysts are skeptical of America's dire assessment – some say Putin is achieving his ultimate objective. : Alliance with the West to destabilize an increasingly democratic Ukraine.
"Putin has a difficult experience of humiliation in Chechnya which tells him that Russia may eventually be able to conquer Ukraine, but they cannot capture it, and that with any crossing of the border they will be very much in blood and treasure." Will pay the price,” said retired Colonel Stephen Gennard, a former senior State Department official and now an ABC News contributor. "If he fails in Ukraine, it could end his regime as well."
In particular, Génard said, a Russian offensive still faces hot, wet weather conditions that make tank movement and aerial bombardment difficult, while massive Russian troops still outnumber Ukraine's military. Less in comparison, especially if Russian troops are to occupy a country. Texas size.
Biden made clear that the US still expects a diplomatic off-ramp and decision against an invasion by Putin, even as they continue to prepare for one - extended to Ukraine. From military aid, to coordinating sanctions with European allies and others.
Since Russia began building up, allies and partners have increasingly come together over the past six weeks to devise a year-long sanctions work, the sources said, including export controls that ravaged Russia's economy. can.
But the U.S. Concerned that Russia may maintain its military build-up and other methods to pressure Ukraine rather than take military action – and that it may begin to erode the unity of the Western Alliance.
Biden referenced the economic pain that could be felt at home in the US, including higher energy prices due to Russia's major role as an oil and gas exporter.
"But the American people understand that protecting democracy and freedom is never without cost," Biden said - his administration was taking "proactive steps to ease the pressure on our own energy markets."