For now, it looks like an expected rise due to social gatherings and crowding because of the festival and year-end celebrations
Mumbai The increase in the average daily cases in Mumbai this month has raised a question- is this already the beginning of the third wave? Epidemiologists and health experts closely monitoring the situation said if the increase continues for another two weeks, the next wave has started.
For now, it looks like the expected boom due to social gatherings and crowds due to festival and year-end celebrations.
Epidemiologist and health systems expert Dr Chandrakant Laharia said, “The sustained increase for another two weeks will make it clear whether the city has started seeing a new wave.” “If you plot the numbers on a graph, continued growth will show an upward curve, indicating a wave. For now, city officials should be watching the trend closely,” he said.
Dr Laharia said a different trend is likely to be experienced in every setting. For example, while Mumbai and Delhi have registered a spurt in cases over the past few days, the cumulative figures for the country have not shown an upward trend.
The rise in Mumbai’s average daily cases has been worrying. In the first week of December, the city’s average daily cases stood at 185. This number increased to 212 in the second week (7-14 December) and 270 in the third week (15-21 December). It is a matter of concern that between 22 and 26 December, Mumbai’s five-day average reached 671, which is 148% higher than the previous week.
Epidemiologist Dr Jayaprakash Muliyal, who is also a member of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization in India (NTAGI), said, “The increase in the presence of the highly permeable omicron variant was expected.” “If we start translating these numbers into a graph, it will look like the start of a new wave. But we must wait and watch the trend.”
According to Dr Muliyil, what matters is whether the wave has any consequences. “Globally, the Omicron variant is replacing the delta variant, but it is causing a milder illness and has not increased the number of hospitalizations. Given the immunity to the virus as well as vaccination among Indians, it is likely that the new wave may have no consequences,” he said.
Dr Shashank Joshi, member of Maharashtra’s Covid-19 Task Force, said the city’s current boom is linked to the festivities and the ongoing wedding season. “These are small, scattered cluster breakouts due to high population density and gatherings. We will have to closely monitor these clusters and see the trends in the coming weeks before labeling them as a wave,” he said, confirming a new wave with the test positivity rate increasing as well as decreasing Have to do doubling time. “For now, it is appropriate to call the increase in cases as a surge,” he said.