Kyiv unlikely to be given special treatment to bypass the long and complicated accession process
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If joining the EU was a popularity contest that would guarantee Ukraine a place after a passionate plea by its President Volodymyr Zelensky, the European Parliament was on its feet on Tuesday.
But, in reality, the process is slow, technically challenging, sometimes requiring painful reforms and would require the support of all 27 existing members.
Zelensky addressed parliament on Tuesday minutes after he pressed for Ukraine's entry into the bloc as his country faced continued bombardment from Russian forces following last week's invasion of Moscow, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Crew said. sought to lower expectations.
While he called for a closer partnership with Ukraine, "EU membership is a completely different and very lengthy process", de Cru said at a news conference in Brussels.
Zelensky told MEPs that his country deserved to join the bloc because it was fighting to protect European values. He welcomed the international unity that prompted the invasion, but said it came at a "very high cost" for Ukraine.
"We are giving our lives for values, freedom, rights and our desire to be equal to you," he said. "Prove that you are with us. Prove that you will not let us go. Prove that you are truly European and then life will conquer death and light will overcome darkness."
Kyiv's hopes were raised when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday that Ukraine "is one of us and we want them in the EU". However, speaking to MEPs after Zelensky's speech, she spoke in a more cautious tone. "There's still a long way to go. We have to end this war. And we should talk about next steps," she said.
European Council President Charles Michel, who will have to consider any application from Ukraine to be a candidate country, said it was a "difficult" topic.
"It is related to detail, and we know there are differing opinions within the EU that can sometimes be nuanced on this," he said.
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The European Union sets tough criteria for being a member. Applicants must be democrats, demonstrate that they respect human rights, have a market economy and agree to adopt the Euro and EU rulebook. The Commission then negotiates to align its legislation with the EU in 35 areas, from justice to transport.
The most recent country to join was Croatia in 2013, a decade after it came into force. Five countries have opened accession talks: Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey.
"If we promise Ukraine a faster path to annexation it will raise some eyebrows there," said an EU diplomat.
The conflict in Ukraine, which declared independence from the Soviet Union after the fall of communism in 1991, is fraught with tensions over whether the West should look to the European Union or the East to Russia.
Kyiv agreed a union agreement – a European integration treaty and trade deal – with the European Union in 2013, but under pressure from Moscow its then-president Viktor Yanukovich refused to sign it. Mass protests later saw him toppled in February 2014, and the pro-EU interim government signed the deal. Within weeks Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and supported a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine that is still ongoing.
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Any future EU merger talks would take years unless Ukraine received special treatment. "Ukraine will have to navigate and close 35 chapters on EU standards and legislation in all policy areas," said Mikaela Gavas of the think-tank Center for Global Development.
"Not only does Ukraine's poor economic potential, exacerbated by the conflict, put it in a difficult position - there are also longstanding questions about corruption that will need to be answered," she said.
The bloc also has a convention of not accepting members with unresolved border conflicts, the only exception being Cyprus, which joined in 2004.
Since the bloc's major expansion by 10 countries – including several former Soviet bloc nations – in Eastern and Central Europe in 2004, the enlargement has also become unpopular with many EU voters, due to subsidies paid to the bloc's poorer members and Concerned about free movement. of their citizens.
If joined, Ukraine, with a population of 41 million, would be the fifth-largest member state, potentially upsetting the balance of power in the 450-million-strong bloc.
At least 10 member states, including Poland, Latvia, Ireland and Greece, have supported giving Ukraine immediate candidate status.
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Many states believed the EU needed internal reform before even accepting new members because its processes were already too cumbersome, he said. It "needs greater absorption capacity" first, he argued.
Rekeles, a former European Commission official, also pointed out that the EU had a "mutual aid clause", which requires EU countries to help a member state under attack - although not necessarily with military equipment.
"What if Ukraine was a member and there was a renewed fighting in the Donbass?" He said, referring to the broken area in the east of Ukraine.
However, Russia's invasion of its neighbor has prompted some unprecedented reactions – with the EU uniting to impose painful sanctions on Moscow, agreeing to provide Ukraine with €450mn of weapons and Germany increasing defense spending and arms exports. For supplies reversed decades of foreign and security policy. Kyiv
Georgina Wright of the Institut Montaigne think-tank in Paris said increasing pressure from the EU's geopolitical clout could lead to more dramatic decisions. "The prospect of Ukraine joining the European Union seems far-fetched - but for the first time, it also seems plausible," she said. "It matters and has enormous political significance."