Matt Olson is a great player, but Atlanta made a mistake in choosing an aging curve over the face of its franchise.
Fifteen years with the Braves, the Final Four as a top 10 MVP finisher, Freddie Freeman appears to be more valuable to the Dodgers, the only team he knows. This only makes sense if the aging curves guide teams more than the halo effect of signing, developing and keeping a franchise player.
Atlanta, 32-year-old, appeared to be moving away from Freeman on Monday when he sent four young players to Oakland to find first baseman Matt Olson, who is four years younger (and two years away from his free agency). Olsson is as capable of Freeman as he could have been. But he is no freeman.
There may have been some grand plan to keep Olson and Freeman, but no such sign has been apparent from the Braves. Last year Freeman told friends that if the Braves had a contract offer, he was ready to return to his roots in Southern California. Atlanta offered Freeman a chance to close during the season and after the 2021 World Series title. He reportedly offered Freeman $135 million over five years, which originally took the Paul Goldschmid contract (five years, $130 million) and added $1 million a year.
From an accounting standpoint, this might make sense. The Braves are taking Olsson's two major years (with the cost of players trading attached) rather than assuming the downside risk of Freeman's career - which has yet to be clarified.
Freeman would soon become the seventh first baseman to have a signing average annual value of $23 million or more. The last six were Miguel Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Chris Davies. All signed for at least five years and for at least 36 years of age.
How did those deals turn out? Not good In the 39 seasons under those contracts (with no remaining two years for Cabrera and Goldsmith), those players returned only 12 eligible seasons of average or better offense (OPS+ of at least 100), three of the 12 seasons at Goldschmidt. came from Years with St. Louis. Legacy die hard, especially first basemen due to their general limited athleticism.
In rebuilding mode, Oakland did well to focus on young talent from the mid-field, but the cost was not particularly high for Atlanta to acquire Olsson. Outfielder Christian Pache is an amazing gold glove caliber center fielder who may or may not hit. Catcher Shea Langeliers is already 24 with only 151 career pro games (in part due to COVID, which canceled the 2020 minor-league season; the business prospects of the COVID generation are a case study in the making). Young pitchers Ryan Cusack and Joey Estes have the quality fastballs an A's can dream up.
Olsson has tremendous power, is a good defender, grew up in Georgia and has been a team leader since the minors. Brave fans will be delighted with Olsson.
But here's when they'll remember Freeman: When there's a runner on second or third base and Freeman isn't around to get him in. Freeman has a strange hitting stroke that makes some wonder what he'll be like as he ages. But Freeman has such a fine hand and a sharp path for the ball that despite his lack of beauty, the swing makes up for the long haul.
In today's game, thanks to defensive innings and bullpen experts, you measure great hitters by how they do with runners in the scoring position and what they do when they face a relief pitcher for the first time in a game. He is Hot Spot Freeman is one of the best guys. Let's match Freeman and Olsen to see what Atlanta can lose
Olsson overall is a little worse in larger spaces. Freeman gets better. He is a magician when the games are decided. He's in my top five hitters you want a key spot at the plate. I hope that when shift is banned in 2023 it will be even better. Who wins the fight when we're talking matchup games? Again, this isn't close:
The only proof you need about how Freeman controls a bat on the biggest stage last year. The Braves didn't win a World Series game last year without Freeman winning a key at bat, especially when defeating a matchup designed to defeat him:
Game 1: With third and two less than two out runners on, the Astros bring in lefty Brooks Raleigh. Freeman foiled the strategy with a pitch. He plants a slider in right field for a sacrificial fly.
Game 3: In the third inning of a no-scoring game, Freeman takes a down-in-fastball from Luis Garcia and shoots it to left-center for a single. The hit drives Eddie Rosario to second base, from where he scores an Austin Riley double. The brave never back down.
Game 6: The Braves lead 5-0 in fifth when Freeman faces another lefty, Blake Taylor, with first runner up. Taylor hangs a 3-and-1 slider, which Freeman hits the wall in left field for an RBI double. Two innings later, Freeman crushed a slider off Raine Steinck for a home run. It is the final run of the Braves' 7-0 clincher.
Maybe the Braves are closing the door for a franchise player. Freeman should have succeeded Chipper Jones in the form of a brave who never wore another uniform. Time changes. So do the guiding principles of the front office.
Much of the fight in previous CBA talks was due to what analytics has done to the game and the player's value. Every team is associated with an aging phase, which is why plate appearances for players 31 and older have dropped by 22% over the past five years. Freeman may have won an MVP and a World Series with the team that drafted him in the second round in 2007, but on paper he is also the 32-year-old first baseman who went on with a cliff for his career. If you believe the actuarial chart.