Leeds United play their first Premier League match under new manager Jesse Marsh when they travel to the Midlands on Saturday and face an improvement at Leicester City.
Peacock has failed to win six consecutive league matches, finding himself only two points away from the relegation zone. Foxes, on the other hand, sit roughly the same distance from the bottom in the EPL Purgatory as they are from European locations.
The reverse fixture at land Road saw these clubs play in a 1–1 draw, as both scored north of an expected goal in the meeting. For the previous season's bouts, each side won.
Ruthless recent results for Leicester City
Even though Leicester City enter the game with a 1-1-1 record in their last three EPL fixtures, the underlying metrics suggest that some bad luck ensued.
The Foxes have won three in a row and four of their last five EPL fixtures on XG and seem to have found a good offensive rhythm. Put aside the trip to Anfield and betters will find that manager Brendan Rodgers' side are aiming for 1.7 xG per 90 minutes in their last four outings, per fbref.com.
Additionally, even though some defensive players still suffer some injuries, Rodgers has received some reinforcements in the attack. James Madison and Jamie Vardy came on as substitutes in the midweek game against Burnley, with each scoring goal to help Leicester claim all three points. It marked Fox's first win since its December 28 victory.
Another good news for Leicester? It has historically dominated the Leeds defence. In the last three meetings, it has never generated less than 1.1 expected goals and made at least 1.5 xG in two of these fixtures.
Also, Leicester have done very well against the lower half and should give themselves a higher rating to walk away with points in this game. In nine such matches, Leicester have dropped all three points only once and are unbeaten with two wins and one draw at the King Power Stadium.
According to fbref.com, the Foxes are also posting above-average offensive metrics in that fixture set, making north of 1.75 xG/90 minutes in those nine games and 2.4 xG/90 minutes at home.
That said, Leicester's defense is prone to accepting opportunities. In those same nine matches, the club's defense has kept only one clean sheet and allowed all nine opponents to make at least 0.75 xG as well.
March Leeds expected to give significant boost
While speculators do not know exactly how Marsh's strategy will translate into the English top flight, it is safe to say that the task ahead of him is enormous.
The aforesaid negative results have not been great for Leeds, as its defense is broken with each subsequent fixture. Even though the match list was not forgiving – three of Leeds' previous six opponents were Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham – it was still north of 2.5 xG per 90 minutes and around 1.7 xG/90 minutes in three games against Newcastle United. Was accepting in, Everton and Aston Villa.
Additionally, Peacock has not done well in this campaign away from home. At the time of this writing, it owns xGDiff, the second worst road in the league and is making only 1.05 xG per 90 minutes.
If there's any ray of hope for Leeds, it means that underlying metrics suggest it's not as bad as its record suggests. The Peacocks are due for some positive defensive regression (29 road goals at 35 xGA) and have achieved results in four out of five road competitions against the bottom half.
Positive regression could also be based on those five games, with Leeds having a -2 goal difference at -0.8 xGDiff in that set of matches.
However, if Leeds hopes to earn a result against Leicester, it will need to fix its defensive problems against a normally powerful attack.
Betting Analysis and Picks
Sometimes the obvious answer is the right one and for this consistency I am looking forward to goals.
I don't expect Marsh to fix Leeds' defensive issues overnight, but he will likely try to emphasize his strength in attack. However, given Leicester's record at home against the lower half, I expect we will see the hosts contribute at least two goals to the scoresheet.
That said, Leicester have won at least once in three consecutive matches against Leeds, making about 1.5 xG per 90 minutes against their hosts. Given that Rodgers is still playing with a temporary defence, it is expected that Peacock will contribute to the goal away from home as well.
The last three matches between these sides have averaged 3.5 xG, so I am happy to have a total of three goals back on the Asian Handicap as my top pick. I consider -120 through DraftKings a pretty good discount and will play it up to -130 odds.