In the eyes of Iowa coach Fran McCaffrey, the Big Ten Conference tournament can be very unpredictable.
"It's not like you go down and think any one team has a particular edge," he said. "Everybody knows ... anyone can beat anyone."
McCaffrey and the fifth-seeded and 24th-ranked Hawkeyes are hopeful that they won't learn that truth when they debut against 12th-seeded Northwestern in Indianapolis on Thursday. The winner will take on fourth-seeded Rutgers in Friday's quarterfinals.
Iowa could have earned a double bye with a win at the then-numbers Sunday night in Indianapolis. 20 Illinois. However, a 15-point, first-half lead disappeared and the Hawkeyes eventually lost 74–72, dropping them to fifth place and enabling Fighting Illini to finish as the top seed for the conference tournament.
The defeat was the result of a collection of self-inflicted wounds for Iowa (22–9), which was not uncommonly worsened by a bad foul. Entering the game with about 76 percent, Hawkeye scored a 10 out of 22 combat rate.
That doesn't take away from the fact that Iowa played good ball to get to this point, winning eight of nine before losing to Illinois no worse than a major NCAA Tournament bid. The Hawkeyes rely on Keegan Murray (23.3 points, 8.6 rebounds per game) and a balanced cast behind him.
Iowa won an 82–61 win over Northwestern on February 28 in the teams' only regular-season meeting in Iowa City. The Wildcats had a small roster that day due to a flu bug.
"I guess you look at Northwestern, they weren't themselves," McCaffrey said while watching that game this week. "I mean, I don't want to sell my team short. It was a great senior night. Bui was out. Pete Nance wasn't himself. He wasn't alone. Of course they played much better the next game when the guys weren't sick. "
Northwestern (15-15) held off 13th seed Nebraska 71-69 in the first game of the rally on Wednesday night from a 15-point, second-half deficit.
The Wildcats received a tiebreaking free throw from Chase Audige with 18 seconds left and a crucial blocking shot from Robbie Beran with three seconds remaining to deny a potential tying bucket.
"We came out in the second half and I think we were cutting a lot harder and setting up a much better screen and everything became a lot more open for us," Nance said.
Bui scored 16 points for Northwestern, while Nannes recorded 14 points, eight rebounds and a career-high eight assists. The Wildcats surpassed 40.7 percent of field-round shoots thanks to their long-range efforts. Northwestern sank 10 out of 30 from 3-point range, while Nebraska had just 3 out of 15 beyond the arc.
Now Northwestern has got another crack at Iowa.
Wildcats coach Chris Collins said, "(Iowa) drilled us, but we had a lot of guys who were really down and out. Hopefully, we'll get a little bit of rest and some energy because I think they can just Playing with anyone in the country."