It will be fine in the end. Is not it?
With three rounds of CONCACAF matches left in just seven days, things are likely to go wrong in a hurry as the US concludes its qualifying campaign for this year's World Cup.
Of course, they can go right! And they probably will. But there is some negativity bias in the American psyche after the shock of 2017, when the US failed to qualify for the 2018 tournament. Bruce Arena's side needed only one point from their final match against Trinidad and Tobago, yet missed a 2–1 loss as other results went against them.
The most unexpected scenario was the one that happened. Phrases such as "the odds are very high in favor of the Americans" no longer have much comfort value, after Trinidad, they can always be answered: "Yes, but..."
The way to heal that wound is to qualify for Qatar. Thursday's victory at Azteca Stadium could have achieved it based on results elsewhere, but the Americans have won only once in the thin air of Mexico City in a friendly match in 2012. "Our record here is terrible," US head coach Greg Berhalter admitted in a Wednesday press briefing.
The position of the Americans in the standings reflects the overall performance of the team: decent rather than impressive. It has not been a harsh march towards Qatar, a decisive change from the past campaign's obscurity. This was an unrealistic hope given the necessary reconstruction under new management and Canada's emergence as a power.
In addition to qualifying, Canada is four points ahead of the United States and Mexico, four points below Panama, and Costa Rica one more point behind in fifth place. The top trio qualify automatically, while the fourth-placed nation earns a single-match playoff in Qatar in June against a team from Oceania, expected to be New Zealand.
There is no complacency from the last cycle. "Of course we use [missing] as motivation. We were extremely upset and now we want to qualify," forward Christian Pulisic told reporters. "We certainly don't want to go through that again. Huh."
Nevertheless, the schedule invites a dramatic climax. With Panama winning at home to Honduras on Thursday, it is possible the US loses to Mexico and moves to third place just one point ahead of Panama. The two met in Orlando on Sunday and Panama beat the US last October.
Should Mexico beat the US and Panama, while Costa Rica took Canada by surprise and went two points behind Berhalter's men, the catastrophic scenario of a fifth-place finish would loom large. As it happens, the US concludes their campaign on March 30 with a trip to Costa Rica, another place they have never won a World Cup qualifier.
The lack of fixtures gives Berhalter a selection dilemma. Avoiding defeat in Mexico would be a boost before the conflict with Panama. The US beat an extraordinary squad from Mexico three times in 2021, so securing a draw, even a win, is not a quick assumption.
However, the importance of Sunday's game means that Berhalter could decide to save key players' legs while five are on the yellow card and face a one-match suspension if they collect another. He said he discussed fielding the "B team" with his coaching staff: "We came up with our answer, and you'll see".
Injuries give the young roster a shallow side in some situations. Gio Reyna returns but America is without Weston McKennie, Sergino Dest, Matt Turner and the only American in qualifying, Brendan Aarons. McKennie, a tone-setting fireball in midfield, is a particularly significant loss. "It's how you respond when you don't have your people that's important," Berhalter said. "All 26 of us on this roster can compete, and that's what it's going to take."
The clear solution to the striker last autumn is now more of a question than an answer: Ricciardo Pepi is without a goal in five months for club and country. Tim Weh is a flamboyant winger, but the onus is on Pulisic to carry out the team's attack - as in the previous campaign. "I feel great and I feel in a good rhythm at the moment," said the Chelsea forward. "This is a really hungry team that is going to give absolutely everything to ensure our place in the World Cup."
Meanwhile, while Berhalter twirls and rumours, Reckless Canada, undefeated and clearly directed by John Herdman, has emerged as perhaps the best – and certainly the funniest – team at CONCACAF.
However, a wide dissection of the power change on the north side of the region could wait for a few more days. Berhalter gathered his staff before the trip to Azteca and told them: "This is probably the biggest week of our lives as professional trainers." Not likely to calm down. But in the end, it will probably be for the best too.