Well, sports fans, we've made it to the end. I've written a bit about all 32 conference tournaments. It's a really great time of year and a really good crash course in getting ready for March Madness. All day basketball in sports which means all - how can it get better than this?
Eight conference tournaments in one article sounds daunting, but many of these are very small, one-bid leagues that don't really get much attention.
Let's dive right in.
Ivy: The Ivy League tournament will not start until Saturday, March 12, and will be the last tournament. Of the eight teams, only four qualified and the conference tournament revolves around the entire member schools. Even though Harvard did not qualify, the tournament is held on their campus in Boston.
No. 1 Princeton is here at -110 favorites per BetMGM, followed by No. 2 Yale at +230. Even though No. 4 Cornell grades better on ranking sites than No. 3 Penn, the matchup with Princeton is why Big Reds are +1000 and Penn is +500.
Princeton had major issues with Cornell. The Tigers won the first game at home by 2 and lost the second game 88–83. Yale also split from Penn, so that might be a little interesting. The Tigers are class of convention, but the -110 isn't a good value. I don't see much importance here, except I think both semi-final games can be high scoring.
Mack: The Mack changed its format this year, as only eight of the 12 teams qualify and all games are now played in Cleveland starting Thursday. Mack Madness has had some crazy moments in the past, but one team clearly stands above the rest and that is No. 1 Toledo, the +105 favorite at DraftKings. No. 3 Ohio is the second favorite at +400, followed by No. 2 Kent State.
Toledo lost both meetings during the regular season to a loss of two to three Rockets against Kent State. Kent State was the only team to close Toledo's offense, holding the Rockets on .918 and .870 points per possession. Toledo 1 was held in conference play just once under the PPP.
Toledo blew up Ohio twice and also beat Akron and Buffalo twice. Kent State has their kryptonite looks this season. The Bobcats suffered four out of five losses to end the season, including a 23-point loss to Kent State. At +450, Golden Flash looks like the only futures option. They will be well represented in the Cleveland area with a large alumni base. Most of these will be schools. This is a fun tournament.
MEAC: Norfolk State is a class of MEAC and will not have to travel far for conference tournaments. It is played throughout the city in Norfolk Scope. BetMGM has Norfolk State as the -225 favorite, followed by No. 2 Howard at +500.
There are a lot of terrible crimes in this convention. Norfolk State and Howard are the only teams in the top 300, with Norfolk State at 186th adjusted offensive efficiency and Howard at 203rd. In the regular season finale, Norfolk State was -4.5 at home and won 22. In a potential championship game, I'd expect Norfolk State to be -4.5 or -5. In that regard, the Howard+500 has a bit of equity, but probably not enough to bet it.
Mountain West: Excitement is at its peak in Sin City for the conference tournament starting Wednesday. This is probably the best edition of the Mountain West tournament we've ever seen. This will happen once again at the Thomas & Mack Center on UNLV's campus, but the home-court advantage hasn't really helped the rebels. They haven't won it since 2008 and haven't even reached the final since 2013.
1 Boise State is the +280 favorite among the DraftKings, followed by No. 3 San Diego State at +330, the nation's leader in adjusted defensive efficiency. No. 2 Colorado State, which beat every team but UNLV, is the third choice at +360.
4 Wyoming Cowboys are interesting here because they are firmly on the bubble with really tough draws. They play No. 5 UNLV and then they will face No. 1 Boise State. They probably have the most to lose and the most for any team to gain. However, a price of +600 does not lead to a lot of betting value.
I prefer the state of San Diego to win it. The Aztecs are so good defensively and shoot 3 better in this conference than everyone except Colorado State. Fresno State is a difficult first game, but the Aztecs should handle it.
Pac-12: One of the many exciting conference tournaments in Las Vegas this season is the Pac-12 at T-Mobile Arena. Arizona is quite the favorite here, at -120, followed by UCLA at +160. They are the only team under 10/1. This makes it very easy for me to find some futures price and I think the USC is the team at +1000.
With the leading number 1 seed, you'll need to look under the bracket. I don't think UCLA is as good as their metrics. Offensively, they rely heavily on mid-range jump shots. The Pac-12 as a convention is ranked 18th in 3p% and 22nd in 2p%, so I don't think their defense is as good as has been suggested.
USC shouldn't be too challenged by the Washington/Utah winner when setting a semi-final date with UCLA. Frankly, I think Washington State in the quarterfinals is a much tougher matchup for UCLA than it is for USC.
The downside of having +1000 is that Arizona will support 7.5 or 8 in the title game, leaving minimal hedging opportunities. Therefore, I would suggest a good bet on Arizona at -120 and a short bet on USC at +1000 and hopefully both survive in the title game so you can sit back and enjoy the guaranteed advantage in hand.
SEC: The SEC tournament will take place at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL, starting Wednesday, so it kicks off Nashville for one season. This is a disappointing thing because Nashville has drawn a good crowd as a destination city. This could hurt teams like Kentucky and Tennessee, which were always well represented in Music City.
I've talked about how I think about the motivation of the team in these tournaments. Many of these teams are already there and winning three games in three days or four games in four days doesn't always have the incentive to work hard. In this instance, I think all of these teams have some level of motivation, but one has more than the others.
The No. 1 Auburn Tigers are second choice at +260, with No. 2 Kentucky at +190 as the favourite. I love this Auburn team. His four losses are from 16 combined points and it seems to have corrected the ship a bit late in the season in terms of his shooting woes beyond the arc.
I'm not sure a team with a bang like Kentucky would work so hard. The Tennessee is good, but not well trained. Arkansas is a difficult draw for Auburn if it comes to that, but the LSU game can take a lot from the Razorbacks, while Auburn has an easy draw. It seems set up for Auburn in my opinion.
Southland: The conference lost its sheen when Stephen F. Austin, Abilene Christian and Sam Houston State made the jump to the WAC. The tournament begins on Wednesday with No. 1 Nichols as the even-money favorite, with No. 3 New Orleans Privateers as second choice on +400. Nicholas is clearly the best team. Even pennies are a good bet on the Colonels, as they should not be tested in the quarters or semi-finals.
SWAC: We have reached the end with SWAC, which also starts on Wednesday. Neither of these teams rank in the top 200 for Kenpom or Bart Torvik, so the winner here will be in one of 16 versus 16 play-in games. Number 2 Texas Southern is the +190 favorite, followed by Number 3 Southern at +250.
I really like the No. 1 Alcorn State at +450. Texas Southern and Southern have to play each other. Alcorn State has an easy draw for the finals. Possible finals look to Alcorn State +4.5 against Texas Southern and probably +4 against Southern. Alcorn State defeated Texas Southern twice and also defeated Southern.