Come on Play Facemask Green: Edition Devante Parker

The acquisition of Tyreek Hill leaves little room for DeVante Parker in Miami’s plans, and he provides something the Packers need

Wednesday morning brought another blockbuster transaction to this whirlwind of the NFL off-season as a tradeoff between a star receiver and his team led to another contractual dispute. This time it was Tyreek Hill heading to the Miami Dolphins to make a series of draft picks. Aside from the obvious comparison that the Kansas City Chiefs got for Hill and what the Green Bay Packers got for Adams (for which different trade charts will tell you different things), why is this the case for Green Bay?

Tyrek Hill was added to a team that had already spent meaningful resources in the wide receiver position. He traded significant draft capital to advance in last year's draft and then selected Jaylen Waddle. He also signed Cedric Wilson to a three-year contract with a guaranteed signing of $12.75M and a net worth of up to $23.55M. Combined with Hill, and you have three meaningful additions to the group in the last eleven months. These three additions leave a productive receiver as a surplus of needs, and that receiver is DeVante Parker.

I've always had a soft spot for Parker, as I would with basically any deep threat with two working hands, but this potential takeover bodes well for Green Bay. Before I dive into the Parker player, Divente Parker's contract is required to dive in because of Green Bay's cap condition. This contract, which runs until 2023, is incredibly easy to absorb as far as experienced players go. That would leave a dead cap hit of $5.4M on Miami's books (and save them $3.34M), while Green Bay would only be on the hook for a maximum of $6.25M this year. Green Bay will have the flexibility to change some or all of their basic wages in 2023 as part of a restructuring structure, reducing their cap to potentially as low as $3.985M. Green Bay could be more creative by adding a zero year or working with Parker through some sort of expansion, though this would require his collaboration. Overall, it's a very manageable contract from a cap perspective, and not something you often see with an experienced player.

Looking at Parker's numbers over the past two seasons, that's pretty tremendous. He has taken 103 catches in the last two seasons, but at a very moderate efficiency with a catch-rate of only 58.5% and a yards-per-goal of only 7.43. Neither 2020 nor 2021 is particularly bright by DVOA, as it was -4.7% and 0% respectively in those two years. So why am I looking for a player who has been the definition of mediocre? Because quarterback play matters to receiver production, especially a receiver such as DeVente Parker.

Tua Tagovailoa is bad. At least at least, Tua Tagovailoa has played badly. In the last two seasons, Tua has been ranked 18th and 26th in the DVOA. Combining the two seasons, he is ranked 28th in the EPA-per-dropbacks. Tua's shortcomings are especially damaging to DeVante Parker because her arm strength is virtually non-existent and the Dolphins commit one of the most stereotypical passing offenses you'll ever see. All those jokes that were made about Ben Roethlisberger? They also applied to Tua, as his intended air yards were only 0.3 yards apart from the previous season (Tua's 7 was Roethlisberger's 6.7). Only Roethlisberger and Jared Goff were more conservative with the ball last year. The Dolphins' offense was designed to protect Tua from his weaknesses, as well as the aggressive offensive line placed in front of him, and they kill the same thing DeVante Parker excels at: conquering the field.

According to the PFF, Parker was only targeted nine times in 2021 beyond twenty yards. In 2020 this number was eleven. In 2019, he was targeted twenty nine times beyond twenty yards. His 20+ target share in 2019 was double as compared to 2020-21. His average depth-of-target dropped from 14.74 in 2019 to a combined 11.43 in 2020-21. While PFF grades... can be uncertain..., their grades show relatively little variation over three years, with a rest in the seventies for all three.

So what was different in 2019? The answer is the quarterback.

If we go back to 2019, we'll get a more productive DeVante Parker. Being paired with Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of Southpaw Big Ben will do that for you. Fitzpatrick, renowned for his gun-sling mentality and ability to push the ball down the field, was a big reason for Parker's superior output. Fitzpatrick's intended air yardage that season was 9, two yards more than Tua's 2021 and the seventh-highest in the NFL. Parker put together a career year, posting the 16th-best DVOA in the league at +14% and the eighth-highest DYAR at 283. While his yards-per-reception were decent with only Tua (12.6 and 12.9), Fitzpatrick reached 16.7. In 2019, Parker's yards-per-goal was ranked 16th among wide receivers and his adjusted-yards-per-route runs ranked 14th. This is a player that was broken and was doing all this with a valid WR1 volume. His 128 goals placed him 16th in the league, one ahead of Davante Adams.

The cost of the parker should not be high. He has been transferred to WR4 and is coming off two disappointing years with the quarterback, which may not facilitate the type of offense he thrives on. I would be surprised if Parker was traded for three picks in more than a day. At Green Bay, he may have a resurgence - with a quarterback who can deliver the ball down the field and in a role that allows him to return to 100+ goals again while doing little damage to Packers Cap positions . Let's beat that facemask.