Imagine (or fear it): Mike Krzyzewski lifting the NCAA championship trophy on April 4, a storybook ending a legendary college basketball coaching career that spanned 47 seasons and, in this scenario, a sixth National title will be included. And his Duke Blue Devils could just deliver it to him. Coach Kay's team's 2021-22 edition is currently at the top of the ACC standings - and a predictable 3-seeded selection is Sunday.
Before the season begins in March, Wednesday night's trip to Charlottesville to face the Virginia Cavaliers represents a chance for revenge for the Blue Devils, which will take place at Cameron Indoor on Feb. The stadium lost to UVA by just one point. 7. For Tony Bennett's squad, meanwhile, the game is mission critical to the NCAA Tournament hopes of the 2019 champions, who are also mathematically alive to what will be their fourth ACC title in five years.
With that in mind, ESPN's college basketball team Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Joe Lunardi made their predictions for Wednesday's Sonic blockbuster matchup, and they also offered their assessment of the two teams' post-season viability. Of.
Where is Duke on your current short list of national title contenders? Which single Blue Devil do you think will be most important to this team's title win over the next six weeks?
Medcalf: For me, Duke could have won the national championship. But I don't think they are in the top group yet.
The list of teams winning national championships is much shorter than it was a month ago. Those with serious shots: Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Arizona are beginning to separate themselves from the pack. Duke, Auburn and Purdue are next. I think the national champion will probably emerge from that collection of teams. Nothing against Baylor and Kansas, but I think both could fall short of the last four runs this season.
I think the most important player for Duke will be Paolo Banchero. When we think of the NCAA Tournament, we focus on the stars. Role players matter and sometimes lead their teams to big runs, but it's a pivotal moment for the projected top-10 pick in this summer's NBA Draft. Duke will go as far as Banchero can take them. Oscar Tshibwe, Ochai Agbaji, Chet Holmgren, Benedict Mathurin, Jabari Smith and Jaden Ivey could all stand between them and the final four. Banchero just has to match that star power and give Duke a shot at ending Coach Kay's reign with the national title when the lights come on in March.
Borzello: I think Gonzaga, Kentucky and Arizona are probably my top tier of title contenders, and then Duke headlines that next group, that second level. The Blue Devils' ceiling is as high as any team in college basketball due to their next-level talent, their ability to defend the ball and rim, and Banchero's presence. I also think they've got something that works with Trevor Keels and Wendell Moore Jr. to handle most of the playmaking duties and AJ Griffin in the starting lineup instead of Jeremy Roach. Moore and Keels are capable initiators and ball handlers, while Griffin is an elite shooter. This gives Duke one of the larger lineups in college basketball.
It sounds obvious, but I think the Blue Devils title depends on Banchero. He is the best player on the team, the person who will have the ball in his hands in late game, late clock situations. And it has been a trouble spot for Duke, who has led in the final 65 seconds of all four of his losses this season. Banchero's outside shot this season has not come as expected so far, and his midrange game has also been inconsistent; If his jumper continues to fall, however, he becomes very vulnerable at the college level. A three-tier scorer with his size and passing ability? Yes, this is the final X factor coming out in March.
GASWAY: When the NCAA previewed the bracket last weekend, we learned that the selection committee had judged the Blue Devils as the final No. 2 seed. seem right. He is a solid national title contender, but not necessarily at the top level. So let's put Duke among the potential champs in the "next four out". The interesting thing about this group is that as small as they are, they are already playing excellent defense. If you ranked each offense and defense in the ACC as separate units in conference play, Krzyzewski's defense would be No. 1 by a healthy margin. (No. 2? Wake Forest D.)
With that in mind, I'll take Mark Williams as my Most Important Success Award winner. He's certainly an excellent rim defender, but he and Paolo Banchero also do most of the defensive rebounding for a team that isn't so good at defensive rebounding. In addition, part of Duke's excellence at D has gotten out of his control: ACC opponents have lost a ton of 3 against the Blue Devils. When that changes, and it will, Williams doing his defensive thing in the paint will become even more important.
It's impossible to ignore the story of the NCAA title Lunardi: The swan song for Coach Kay and the Blue Devils. But I'm not buying it - at least not now. It's quite possible that Duke runs the table and wins the ACC tournament, but what would that really mean? This year, it will be the equivalent of winning the Mountain West or perhaps the American. Well, sure, but nowhere near great.
When have the Blue Devils really been "great" this season? As in, good enough to win the national championship? A win over Gonzaga, of course, and close to a very early victory over Kentucky. in North Carolina? Yes, but he was pacified by the opponent's inconsistency. Does a national champion Duke team lose to the then-healthy Florida state? Perhaps. But they don't lose to the Blue Devils at home in Miami and certainly not at home again at this year's edition of Virginia.
All of this is to say that the Blue Devils are barely on my national championship contenders list. And that should be good news for Duke fans everywhere.
Are Virginia's NCAA Tournament hopes over without a win on Wednesday? What is the formula for the Cavaliers defeating Duke?
MEDCAFE: We're having this conversation because of the respect Tony Bennett has earned throughout his career. But if you get rid of the brand name, you're left with a team that entered the week with a net ranking in the 80s and a resume that includes losses against NC State, James Madison, and the Navy. And I think most would agree that only a conference tournament title would give the Cavaliers a shot at the NCAA Tournament. I think the same is true for Virginia if she loses to Duke on Wednesday.
In their first matchup earlier this season, Wendell Moore Jr. and Paolo Banchero shot a joint 6-for-17. Bennett has always been able to force "other people" to try to beat him, and he did so three weeks ago at Cameron Indoor Stadium. However, it was Duke's only defeat in nine games. The Blue Devils are a more focused team now. But Virginia has been aggressively skilled in recent games, with Jaden Gardner actually playing some pretty good basketball down the stretch. I think there's a better chance of winning this game in Virginia than to stop the Dukes stars again and go to Brooklyn and win the ACC Tournament title. This seems like a must-play for Bennett's squad.
Medcalf Score Prediction: Duke 67, Virginia 60
Borzello: Tony Bennett's club has also done a commendable job of engaging in the big talks, winning five of their last six matches - including road victories against Duke and Miami. But without another win over the Blue Devils on Wednesday (or a deeper run in the ACC tournament), it's hard to see whether the Cavaliers will get a real chance to hear their name heard on Selection Sunday. Top-of-the-line wins over Duke and Providence are good, but the Cavaliers are still just 3-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, and on top of that three Quadrant 3 losses. His net is in the 80s, and his metrics are generally below average for a bubble team. That's why Virginia needs this victory.
That said, the Cavaliers also showed a few weeks ago that they have what they think it is. So when you ask what the formula is, they already know it, in theory: Slow down the pace, pack the alley, force Duke to shoot the perimeter jumpers, take care of the ball. And try to get Mark Williams in the wrong trouble. Forcing the Blue Devils to play entirely on the half court and mostly off the rim - which makes it difficult to generate consistent momentum - is the way to go on Wednesday. Easier said than done, of course.
Borzello Score Prediction: Duke 66, Virginia 58
Gasway: Yes. Finished. The road win against Duke and the neutral floor win over Providence look spectacular. The win in Miami is good too. Elsewhere on the profile, the Virginia Quadrant is trailing in 3 games to around a 3-3 record, and a home loss against the Blue Devils would drop this team to 17-11. Nate is practically waving his arms and shouting that it is extremely suspicious of the Cavaliers; And for a group that defeated the Blue Devils and the Friars, it's surprisingly weak in terms of record strength. They need this win - or a run - in the ACC tournament. If it comes to this, the most valuable opponents to win might be the people of Wake Forest, North Carolina or, naturally, Coach Kay.
Gasway Score Prediction: Duke 63, Virginia 59
Lunardi: Thank God for Providence or we may not even be having this conversation. By all means, Virginia profiles as a NIT team. And so will the Cavaliers, though a second win over Duke will move the needle enough to keep the Cavs relevant through the ACC tournament.
Lunardi Score Prediction: Duke 68, Virginia 64