MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - Almost any tennis fan will try to convince you that an Australian Open without world No. 1 Novak Djokovic equals a more open and unpredictable slam.
On the surface, that line of thinking makes sense. The Serbian superstar has won the tournament nine times, holds a staggering 82-6 record at Melbourne Park since 2007, and is a favorite every time he sets foot at Rod Laver Arena.
But it must be argued that a potential Australian Open winner is now clearer than it was 24 hours ago when Djokovic was still in the main draw. On Sunday evening in Melbourne, less than 18 hours before the gates opened to the public for the first day, Djokovic learned that his Australian visa would not be reinstated and was forced to relinquish his right to defend his Australian Open. Had to leave the country immediately. Crown.
Within seconds of the much-anticipated and controversial announcement, a new outright favorite emerged in the form of world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev.
The gangly Russian came on the scene in late 2019 when he reached the finals of the US Open, losing a five-set thriller to Rafael Nadal. Last year he entered his first Australian Open final, but lost once again, this time largely to Djokovic, who declared "it was only a matter of time" before Medvedev left after the match.
Djokovic was right. Six months later, Medvedev was a dominant champion, somewhat ironically thwarting Djokovic's rare attempt at a calendar slam to clinch the US Open.
"The US Open gave me more confidence in my life and my tennis life as well," Medvedev told the media at his pre-tournament news conference on Saturday. "Sometimes before a tournament I could get a little worried if I wasn't playing well. [I] used to get a little nervous and sometimes even angry. But now I think I know even more what I do and how can I play.
With Djokovic no longer on the field, Medvedev is the favorite player. Since the start of 2018, Medvedev leads all players in match wins, final appearances and titles on the hard court, while only Djokovic claims more victories over top 10-ranked players on the surface. His win at Flushing Meadows last year means that, at 25, he is now the youngest active men's slam champion.
Medvedev has been enjoying success in the team format as well. He led Russia to victories in both the ATP and Davis Cup last year and was part of the Team Europe squad, which dominated the Laver Cup 14-1.
It's been a remarkable growth for Medvedev, who admitted this week, perhaps with some surprise, that "there were some years as a junior where I wasn't sure I was going to turn professional."
As a teenager, Medvedev reached a point where he chose to focus more on his studies rather than practice. It wasn't until he partnered with French coach Gilles Cervara in the summer of 2017 and decided to give his tennis dream one final push that a life as a professional began to appear a real possibility.
Tennis observers have tried to pass the torch down a generation for quite some time, or more specifically, to Medvedev, and many have been burned on that before. But the 2022 Australian Open presents a situation that for the first time in 15 years no member of the Big Three - the trio of Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer - is a favorite at a Slam.
Djokovic is now joined by Federer, who is missing his second straight Australian Open after recovering from knee surgery. Nadal is the only Big Three member who could spoil Medvedev's fortnight, but the pair won't meet until the final.
"We all know the Big Three are getting bigger, but they're still winning a lot of Slams," Medvedev said. "[Everyone] is always saying, What's next? Nothing's coming. But there's always something to come."
Medvedev has a great chance to hoist the Norman Brooks trophy and double his Slam tally. But if he is to go all the way, he must make history, as no man in the Open Era has won his first two majors in consecutive events.
But history is not bothering him, and on the eve of the tournament, Medvedev issued a warning to the other 127 men in the draw.
"I'm a lot more confident than I was last year," he said.