Based on pure performances, this season there has been little to choose between Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen. But in terms of championship points, the gap is already huge.
With three of this year's 23 races completed, Leclerc has a 46-point lead over Verstappen - a bigger margin than either Verstappen or Lewis Hamilton at any point in last year's championship fight.
The reason for the gap is clear. Two retirements from second place - the most recent of which came on lap 38 of Sunday's Australian Grand Prix - have meant that Verstappen has given Leclerc at least 36 points through reliability in only three races. Give them back, plus a point for the fastest lap here or there, and the difference between the two will be in the single digits.
Missed opportunities are not lost at either Verstappen or Red Bull.
"We are already miles behind," Verstappen said after retiring on Sunday. "I don't even want to think about the championship fight at the moment; it's more important to finish the race.
"Of course, today was a bad day again as usual. Not really having the pace, I was managing my tires to make it to the end. It looked like an easy P2 anyway and I knew I couldn't fight Charles, so there was no point trying to put pressure on him. We didn't even finish the race, so it's quite disappointing and unacceptable."
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said: "It is completely understandable, their frustration. It was a really disappointing result of not finishing the race.
"I mean, we don't know what the problem is. I don't think it's really engine related. I think it might be a fuel issue, but we need to get the car back, able to see us Must be what really happened."
But Verstappen's misfortunes should not take away from the performances of Ferrari and Leclerc this year. Even before Verstappen retired, Leclerc had a race under control in a way that he has not experienced in any of his last three wins in Formula One.
"It was the first race where we could control the gap a bit, and honestly, what a car I had today," he said after the race. "Of course I did a good job the whole weekend, but without the car it was not possible and this weekend, especially at race pace, we were extremely strong.
"The tires felt great from the first lap to the last. We were managing the tyres very well. And I'm very happy."
Of course, it's still early in the season. If Leclerc fails to finish and Verstappen wins, the difference of 46 points can only be reversed in two races, but it is more likely that it will take 10 or more races, assuming Verstappen is regular. Se starts outperforming Leclerc. Given that there are 20 races left, it probably isn't as big a disaster as it seems at first, but it is clear Red Bull must immediately get on top of its reliability issues - hence Verstappen's comments.
For Leclerc, however, a championship lead of this size is virgin territory. In fact, he has never led an F1 championship before this season and rarely has such a competitive car at his disposal. But the championship title years in the junior series before F1 means he is not fully prepared, and has already adapted his approach to the championship campaign.
Leclerc said on Sunday: "I've been in this position in the junior category before, but then it means a lot to be in this position in Formula One, and especially after the last few years, and especially a team like Ferrari." with." "So it sounds incredible.
"The mindset is a little different than in the last two years because now I know that beneath me I have a car that is capable of winning and I don't really need to overdo things or do anything special and great. Really Get a spot or two in the U.S., because I know it's in the car and I just have to work. So this year the mindset is a little different.
"And then it's going to be difficult to keep up with Red Bull in terms of development, but yeah, it's the same team that made this car, that will work on the development of this year's car, so I believe it. None The reason we're on the backfoot is because we've done a great job, everyone at Maranello [Ferrari's headquarters] has done a great job building this car this year."
The key to the championship will be the relative growth rates of Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes. It is clear that Ferrari already has a more developed car than its rivals and, crucially at this early stage of the year, it has a better understanding of how to maximize potential. It is perhaps no surprise that over the past two years Ferrari was able to pour time and resources into the development of this year's car, while Red Bull and Mercedes were fighting for the championship.
On the other hand, there may still be more low-hanging fruit for Red Bull and Mercedes. Clearly Red Bull's short-term focus should be its reliability issues, but that won't stop drivers and engineers from developing their setup directions.
Verstappen and teammate Sergio Pérez both struggled with the car's balance in Australia, and in qualifying Verstappen lost pole position to Leclerc, relative to Ferrari in the smooth of the slow motion at the end of the lap. had gone. The car's difficult balance also seemed to affect tyre performance, as Red Bull cracked open the surface of their front left tyre, while Ferrari managed to avoid a similar issue with Leclerc.
But while Red Bull is still clearly understanding its car from a performance and reliability standpoint, Horner is confident his team will start to gain ground on Ferrari very soon.
"Obviously they started this project much earlier than us, so to an extent we are playing catch-up," he said. "But the fact that we are playing catch-up from the second fastest position is encouraging and we are starting to understand some of the issues that we have.
"I'd rather fix a faster car than try and make a reliable slow car faster. So, you know, we need to get on top of it. We can't accept DNF, but We need to understand what the problem is and we have to address it."
But Russell will be the first to admit that he doesn't have the second-best car this year, and it is highly unlikely that Leclerc sees him as his main contender for the title. On Saturday evening, Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff put his team's championship chances at 20 percent - which may well be an optimist.
Nevertheless, Mercedes have done well to limit the damage from their championship challenge early in the season. Apart from Hamilton's scary race in Saudi Arabia, the team has maximized its points with its package. The big question is whether that package will improve in the coming races and whether Mercedes' own development will only be canceled by developments at Red Bull and Ferrari.
Mercedes averaged 0.85 seconds from pole position in the first three rounds of the season, and pole distance as a percentage has gradually creeped up each round. Mercedes claims the performance it's seen on the track is about a second off what it expected from its simulations at the factory, so theoretically if it fixes its issues, it could become a front-runner immediately .
"I'm optimistic that eventually we'll get there, whether it's race two or five, we just need to be humble."
Hamilton, who is fifth in the standings, three points ahead of Verstappen but 43 points behind Leclerc, is not yet ready to give up.
"I like to be optimistic," he said after finishing fourth on Sunday. "There are still 20 races left. If you think realistically about the way we play, the top teams often develop at a similar rate. Will that be the case with this new car? Who knows?
"But I'm really, really hoping that we can get into the fight. Whatever improvements we make, [Ferrari] and Red Bull will probably take similar steps, so it won't be easy. And yes, the difference It's huge now, but there's a long way to go."