Each year's awards season usually ends with the Oscars, but the postponement of the Grammys may have pushed them to headline position—or pushed them to the back of the line, depending on your point of view. Luckily, no one is still talking about the events of this past Sunday, right?
You'd be forgiven for losing track of what Sunday's Grammys telecast offers, given the Sturm and Drang that's coming up in the wake of this year's Oscars. So here's a quick crib sheet with some stories to watch. You can find the full list of this year's nominees here.
1. Don't refuse the sweep...
It's hard to imagine a world in which anyone other than Olivia Rodrigo wins the award for Best New Artist, even against a solid lineup that includes everything from fineness to Japanese breakfast to Baby Kim. The question is whether Rodrigo's wire-to-wire commercial success in 2021 — he released his breakout single "Driver's License" in early January and churned out subsequent smashes throughout the year — extends to Grammy dominance.
Rodrigo has been nominated in each of the categories Grammy-watchers call "the Big Four" (non-genre-specific general categories considered the most important of the night): Album of the Year (for Sour), Song of the Year (for "Driver's License"), Record of the Year (also for "Driver's License") and Best New Artist. Rodrigo is considered a heavy favorite in the last three, and completing the sweep for Sauer won't be a huge surprise.
The Grammys love a grand coronation for the success of industry A-listers: Norah Jones won Best New Artist, Album of the Year and Record of the Year in 2003, for example, while Billie Eilish heads into 2020 as a newcomer categories entered. It is easy to imagine Rodrigo following in Eilish's footsteps. (That said, the only artist other than Eilish to ever sweep the big four was Christopher Cross in 1981.)
2. ...but see the curveball
The Grammys have a funny way of following one type of logic into genre-specific categories, only to have the track jump to another type of logic when the big four roll around. The general categories are voted on by a very broad swath of the music industry – which generally means older, whiter and more conservative – which is one reason why major hip-hop and R&B artists often get the biggest trophies when they roll. Get less change. (This year, the number of nominees in each of the big four categories increased from eight to 10. How this might affect the results remains to be seen.)
Just last year, Megan Thee Stallion and Beyoncé's "Savage" looked on track to win the record of the year after taking home the Grammys for Best Rap Song and Best Rap Performance; Meg also won Best New Artist, while Beyoncé won Best R&B Performance (for "Black Parade") and Best Music Video (for "Brown Skin Girl"). Instead, Eilish recorded an impossible win for "Everything I Wanted"—a song that sounded like an afterthought until the envelope was opened.
Whether they finish the curveball Rodrigo sweep off course remains to be seen, but if you're looking for a big surprise, it's likely to come with Album of the Year. Rodrigo can be seen more as a solo artist than an album artist at this point in his career, clearing room for a usurper. Two possible candidates to round her out are wildly different: Eilish herself, who won just one Oscar last weekend and is up for Happier Than Ever, and Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga's Love for Sale.
3. Wait, I'm Excuse, Wait: Tony Bennett?
4. What about John Batiste? Is he ahead?
This year, no one has more Grammy nominations than bandleader, pianist and composer. John Batiste took home an astonishing 11 awards - including Record of the Year (for "Freedom") and Album of the Year (for We Are). Batiste has quickly become an awards favorite (he picked up an Oscar last year for his work on Soul's score) so that sure could garner a plurality of votes in one of the major categories. If nothing else, he's bound to play a big role overnight as both a winner and a dynamic live performer.
5. Anticipating Today's Controversies
Controversy last year revolved around an inexplicable shutout—The Weeknd didn't receive a single nomination despite presiding over one of the biggest hits in years—and a long-standing meaning that black artists too often received Grammys. Less variation is given in the major categories. , This year may add to that gloom, especially given the possibility that many of the night's biggest prizes will be split between Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish and/or Tony Bennett.
Isolated categories can also cause the occasional social-media firestorm. BTS has never won a Grammy and is up against heavy hitters for a category in which it was nominated, Best Pop Duo/Group Performance. Jazmine Sullivan, who had one of the best albums of 2021 with Hex Tales, could extend her Grammy losing streak to 0-for-15—a traitor. Louis CK Could very well win Best Comedy Album.
But sometimes the biggest controversies are the ones you never saw coming. speaking of which...
6. How soon is it?
We're less than a week away from the incident in which Will Smith slapped Chris Rock at the Oscars minutes before he won the Best Actor award. We're highly unlikely to experience a similar moment, but slaps are sure to come, whether in host Trevor Noah's monologue or jokes told by award presenters. Given that the Smith/Rock incident stemmed from a joke told in bad taste, would the joker watch their words more carefully? It is bound to be at the back of the minds of the makers.
It's worth noting here that Kanye West — whose Donda is nominated for album of the year — will not attend this year's ceremony, reportedly due to statements or threats involving Trevor Noah, ex-wife Kim Kardashian and Pete Davidson. West's absence could be big: Though he's unlikely to win Album of the Year, he's got a better-than-decent shot at Best Rap Album, especially after Drake withdrew from the idea of Certified Lover Boy. Yeh's name is sure to come up during the night.
7. Previewing Demonstrations
Last year's Grammys may have been controversial, but the telecast itself was a victory for the post-COVID-era production. Gliding seamlessly from stage to stage, the show served as a highly effective infomercial for a vast and diverse cross-section of music with no train to speak of. It will be fascinating, as the awards return to pre-COVID formats, to see if the Grammys stick to what works so well in 2021.
The announced lineup of artists portends a spectacular night: Lil Nas X - always a major-turner on the awards-show stages - will perform, as will Billie Eilish, HER, BTS, Olivia Rodrigo, Jay Balvin, Brandi Carlyle, John Legend (who will receive the Recording Academy's Global Impact Award this weekend), Chris Stapleton, John Batiste, Silk Sonic (who will debut the show after making his TV debut during last year's broadcast), NAS, Brothers Osborne, Carrie Underwood and more.
The Grammys telecast will also include a tribute to the late Broadway legend Stephen Sondheim. Sadly, Foo Fighters' scheduled performance on March 25 has been canceled due to the death of drummer Taylor Hawkins. Expect them to be named at least once on a Sunday night.