SportsLine's model revealed its college basketball picks for UMBC vs. Vermont in the America East Tournament 2022 finals
The UMBC Retrievers will take on the Vermont Catamounts in the final of the 2022 America East tournament on Saturday. UMBC are on a five-game winning streak with 18-13 points on aggregate and a 13-7 record in conference play. The Retrievers lost to Vermont by 27 points in the first matchup between the two teams, and Vermont has had only one defeat since December 7. The Catamounts are the top seeds in the tournament with a 19–1 conference mark and overall record. 27-5.
Kaiser Sportsbook lists the Catamounts as a 15.5-point favorite for this 11 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas considers, or over-unders, in the latest UMBC vs. Vermont odds is 142. Before locking in any Vermont vs UMBC picks, be sure to check out college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer models.
The SportsLine projection model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, proprietary computer models have generated an impressive profit of nearly $1,600 for $100 players on their top-rated college basketball selections against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has turned its attention to Vermont versus UMBC and revealed its iconic picks and predictions. You can visit Sportsline to see all of Model's college basketball selections. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for UMBC vs. Vermont:
- UMBC vs. Vermont Spread: Vermont - 15.5
- UMBC vs. Vermont Over-Under: 142 points
- UMBC vs. Vermont Money Line: Vermont -1700, UMBC +900
- UMBC: Retrievers are 11-9 against the spread in America's pre-games
- VER: Americas are Catamount 13-7 against the spread in pre-games
Why UMBC can cover
UMBC specialized in preventing free throws on defence, ranking number 4 in the free-throw rate allowed in the country. This gives Retrievers a marginalized edge, and UMBC's offense is prolific. 2 in UMBC offensive efficiency, and retrievers are in the nation's top 15 in both 3-point accuracy (38.6 percent) and free-throw accuracy (78.4 percent).
2 in free-throw manufacturing in America East, and UMBC takes care of the property by doing business on just 16.3 percent of visits. Vermont is below-average by prior US standards in forcing turnover on defense, and the Catamounts have a 6.6 percent block rate this season. Vermont is also allowing opponents to shoot more than 37 percent on 3-point attempts, and UMBC has been set up to take advantage of that weakness on the periphery.
Why Vermont Might Cover
Vermont has one of the best crimes in the country, leading America East in overall efficiency, 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting. The Catamounts are in the top five in effective field-goal percentage nationally, and Vermont is tough to rival any of the slow, very few stops. However, Vermont's defense is also effective and undermined. The Catamounts lead America East in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Vermont leads the entire nation in defensive rebound rates by 81.3 percent.
Vermont allowed free-throw rates in the top 20 nationally, and the Catamounts the convention's top mark in shooting efficiency. This includes 44.4 percentage points in 2-point shooting, and America is the last in the East to make a second-chance opportunity on the UMBC offensive glass.