Author: Neil Thomas, Eurasia Group
Chinese President Xi Jinping claims his country is a 'world leader' in the prevention of COVID-19. China persists with a zero-COVID policy that uses lockdowns, mass testing and border restrictions to contain local outbreaks and cases despite rising costs of the more permeable Omicron version Keeps it very low.
This January the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2022 growth forecast for China from 5.6 per cent to 4.8 per cent, citing 'pandemic-induced disruptions related to zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy' as a primary factor. Eurasia Group has listed China's zero-Covid policy as its top risk for 2022.
But that zero-COVID policy isn't going anywhere. Chinese leaders are determined to contain the spread of the virus. Chinese public health experts who advocate for the lifting of epidemic controls are still silent, censored, or forced to back their arguments. In January 2022, in Shanxi province, Xi accepted the challenge of 'new mutant strains that spread quickly and are highly infectious', but said authorities should 'always tighten the strings of epidemic prevention and control,' And stay steadfast in focusing on prevention.
Why does Beijing stick to this approach? The most important reason is that Xi has invested significant political capital in zero-COVID, which has been painted as a shining example of how the Communist Party provides good governance to the Chinese people. As Xi seeks to secure an anti-ideal third term as Chinese leader at the 20th Party Congress in the second half of 2022, he focuses on domestic stability and policy continuity, while he seeks to consolidate his power. to exercise.
'Living with COVID-19' presents its own problems. Scholars at Peking University estimated that, if China followed the 'open-open' strategy of Western governments, it could experience a 'huge outbreak' with more than 630,000 infections and 22,000 severe cases. The number of daily deaths would be in the hundreds or thousands. China is not a prosperous country and this caseload will strain its public health system, causing public outrage and causing a political crisis for Xi's leadership.
There is a credible argument that the benefits of a zero-Covid strategy to China's economy outweigh the drawbacks, at least for now. Rising cases, faltering health infrastructure and a wave of self-isolation in China could lead to more acute labor shortages and supply chain disruptions than zero-COVID. In any case, there is little chance that Xi will end his zero-Covid approach before the 20th Party Congress and any relaxation is likely to be cautious and gradual.
What will it take for Xi to change course? The upside scenario is that China rolls out domestic mRNA vaccines by the end of the year, as vaccine nationalism means Beijing refuses to approve foreign options in mainland China - for Covid-19 patients with co-morbidities. Despite Pfizer's recent desire to approve the Paxlovid oral tablet. The downside is that the widespread lockdown threatens a recession that brings more political risks to Xi than COVID-19. But the bar for such a move appears to be high, as Xi has slowed down the pace of signature policy agendas to provide economic aid to sustain zero-COVID conditions, such as general prosperity and financial deviation.
A top government epidemiologist recently indicated that officials were considering some changes to China's epidemic control policies, but there is little sign that Beijing is preparing to allow domestic transmission of COVID-19. And it's managed to control Omicron relatively well so far.
While something is easily missed abroad, it is not clear that most Chinese would also want to leave this stance. Social media posts and anecdotal reports indicate a creeping discontent, yet limited independent opinion polls published since 2020 show that China's zero-COVID policy coincides with strong public support for the government. eats.
China's annual data in the 2022 Edelman Trust Barometer found that confidence in the government had risen from 9 percent to 91 percent and confidence in national health officials had risen by 12 percent to 93 percent. These results resonate with a UC San Diego study from July 2020, which found the average confidence of urban Chinese citizens in Beijing – as scored out of ten – increased from 8.23 in June 2019 to 8.87 in May 2020. Done, those who 'like to be under China'. The political system climbs from 70 percent to 83 percent compared to others.
Popular support for zero-Covid may be another reason why Xi will stick with this policy for some time, especially given the heavy toll in such reversals. A simple extrapolation from data from the United States - where COVID-19 has killed more than 900,000 people in a population of 330 million - suggests that Xi's zero-COVID policy has reduced more than 4 million among China's 1.45 billion residents. More deaths could have been prevented. The comparison isn't scientific, but it gives a sense of the stakes for Xi.
Zero-COVID carries major economic risks for Beijing, but the dangers of 'living with COVID-19' mean Beijing is likely to ease policy until China is safe or desperate Not there. Xi could win hearts from Taiwan, another zero-Covid jurisdiction, where President Tsai Ing-wen enjoys a plus-16 percent net approval rating for his pandemic prevention policies.